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000
FXUS64 KOUN 150243 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
943 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
EARLY THIS EVENING JUST WEST AND SW OF THE FA ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF TX AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS VORT MAX...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND MID THETAE
AXIS DO THE SAME. PWATS NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ARE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMA COMING IN AT 142 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOME
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE
HIGHEST QPF. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH 06Z
AND EXPAND AT LEAST LOW END CHC POPS OVER CENTRAL OK TOWARDS 12Z
WHEN TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE TRAVERSING WESTERN OK. ADJUSTED
SKY AND TD GRIDS A BIT...ALTHOUGH NOTHING MAJOR WAS NEEDED. ALL
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

BARNES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

AVIATION...
CONT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS
UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS LIFTS NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS... MAINLY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. WILL INTRO SOME PROBS FOR AFTN STORMS INTO I-44 AND I-35
CORRIDOR AS UPPER LOW TRANSLATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN MVFR CAT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...
WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS WEST BY SAT AFTN AS SKIES CLEAR WITH DEEPER
MIXING.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING RAIN/STORM POTENTIAL
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE
CAP IS WEAKEST. INCLUDED A 10 PERCENT CHANCE/ISOLATED
WORDING IN THESE AREAS. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF DEVELOPMENT REMAINS RATHER LOW.

LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDY...WARM...AND MUGGY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL. ONLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES...20 TO 40
PERCENT OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
GENERALLY WEST OF AN ALVA TO WICHITA FALLS LINE. NO SEVERE
STORMS OR HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...KEPT 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
MANY MORE DRY HOURS THAN WET ONES. ANY MORNING SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT/WEAK. REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS NOT GREATEST AS CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HEATING. IF STORMS
CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY
MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STORMS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE CAP WILL
BE WEAKEST. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...THOUGH
A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS
MAY DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. WENT ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE RAIN CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS
THE MAIN HAZARDS. CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
REMAINS LOW.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOTTER WEATHER AND LESS
CHANCE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A BUILDING MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE AREA.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  89  72  89 /  30  30  20  20
HOBART OK         71  95  71  95 /  30  30  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  93  74  98 /  30  30  10  10
GAGE OK           70  92  67  92 /  40  40  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  88  72  89 /  20  40  30  40
DURANT OK         75  91  73  93 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/30