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000
FXUS64 KOUN 120352
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.AVIATION... CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY MIDDAY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WITH GUSTS OVER 20KTS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT DAYTIME CU TO
FORM ALONG WITH SOME MID CLOUDS AS A MINOR MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY
IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES.

THROUGH 9 PM CDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS NEAR
AN ARNETT TO STILLWATER LINE AS OF 240 PM CDT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
GENERALLY 700 J/KG OR LESS. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH. KEPT ISOLATED/10 PERCENT CHANCE SOUTH OF THE LINE
MENTIONED ABOVE. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER 4 AM CDT TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ALLOW A
FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AS
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES IN THESE AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF AN ALVA TO CHANDLER LINE WHERE BEST LIFT
IS FORECAST. ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. SOME MODELS
SUGGESTED THAT ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR
NOW...DID NOT MENTION RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS AS NOT
CONFIDENT CAPPING WILL BE OVERCOME.

MONDAY...VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
LOCATIONS HAVING PERHAPS THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR...MAINLY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. PREFERRED THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS DUE TO ABUNDANT SUN AND A WESTERLY
COMPONENT OF SURFACE WINDS TO ENHANCE WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR RAIN
CHANCES...MAINLY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...AS
LATEST MODELS SUGGESTED A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE THE MAIN HAZARD DURING THIS
TIME...THOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE
FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  76  54  89 /   0  10  10   0
HOBART OK         48  80  57  92 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  80  58  91 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           45  83  54  92 /  10  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  72  51  86 /   0  30  10   0
DURANT OK         50  78  53  86 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17