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000
FXUS64 KOUN 191152
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE S/SE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KWWR AND KGAG THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH NOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION...
THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT OUT A MENTION IN THE KWWR...KGAG...AND KPNC
TAFS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...SO KEPT CEILINGS AT VFR AT THE MOMENT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH...PICKING UP THROUGH
NOON...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A WEAK MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SRN KS AND
NWRN OK. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/THETA E AXIS POSITIONED ALONG/NEAR THE WRN KS/OK
BORDER.

OVERALL...MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT GO THIS MORNING IN
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS. CURRENT THOUGHTS LEAN
TOWARD THE MCS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT CONTINUES
TO TRACK EASTWARD. CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR MCS
MAINTENANCE ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL OK...WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE
IS LESS FAVORABLE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY.
THERE IS DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...30-40KTS SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
OK...BUT MUCAPES REMAIN LOW FOR MCS SUPPORT...700 TO 1000 J/KG.
OVERALL...THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WILL POSE A FAIRLY DECENT
CHALLENGE FORECASTWISE. THE RECENT 06Z RUN OF THE HRRR REVISES ITS
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE MAIN
LINE AND SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS MIGHT BE A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO...AS NEW CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST
HOUR...SINCE 230 AM...ACROSS SERN CO AND THE OK PANHANDLE. FOR THE
MOMENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NWRN OK THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHALLOW 500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT/TILT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND THE PAC NW TROUGH DIGGING EASTWARD...A STOUT SFC
TROUGH/FRONT WILL EXTEND THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WEAK SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN
OK...PRIMARILY WELL NORTH OF THE I-40 AND I-44 CORRIDORS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY AFTER THIS MORNING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE
HOLD...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S...APPROACHING THE 100S ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N TX.
THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NWRN OK SUNDAY AS
THE WRN TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND A SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION...BUT AT THE MOMENT...EXPECT THE GOOD MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  85  69  89  71 /  10  10  10   0
HOBART OK         90  70  96  72 /  30  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  72  95  73 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           87  69  96  73 /  70  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     85  69  88  72 /  30  30  30  10
DURANT OK         88  71  91  72 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/04/04