000
FXUS64 KOUN 172327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.AVIATION... BAND OF CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM NW TO SE
OK PERSISTS EARLY THIS EVENING BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM
THE SOUTH. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND SE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN
LATER TONIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MORE RAPIDLY ON SATURDAY THAN
TODAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SLY AND INCREASES. TSTM
ACTIVITY IN TX EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF KSPS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
STORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT-TERM... WILL WATCH FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN OR NEAR THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THERE HAS BEEN A
PERSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE ARCHER COUNTY AREA THIS AFTERNOON... AND CU FIELD HAS BEEN
INCREASING NW OF BRECKENRIDGE TX AND SOUTH OF COLEMAN TX. WILL
LEAVE THE ISOLATED WORDING AND SUB-20 POPS IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. LATER
TONIGHT IT APPEARS THAT AREAS OF FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH WE LOOK TO HAVE A HEALTHY CAP IN PLACE
TOMORROW... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING QPF ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE ECMWF BREAKS OUT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THROUGHOUT WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH BUT KEEP AT LEAST 20S
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STORM CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER. WE THEN RELOAD FOR ANOTHER
ROUND ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE BROAD UPPER TROF
TO THE WEST AND MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOME OF THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY ON EACH OF THESE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  91  68  90 /  10  20  20  30
HOBART OK         68  98  66  97 /  10  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70 100  68  98 /  10  20  20  20
GAGE OK           65  95  60  92 /  10  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     67  88  70  89 /  10  20  30  50
DURANT OK         69  92  68  90 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$