000
FXUS64 KOUN 232353
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
653 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN FOR ANY OF THE TAF SITES. EARLY CONVECTION
THIS EVENING HAS REMAINED SW OF THE REGION...THEREFORE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...FOR KPNC...-RA TO -TSRA REMAINS POSSIBLE AS A STALLED
SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NERN OK THIS EVENING.
THROUGH 06Z...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONFIDENCE...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS ACROSS WRN OK AND CENTRAL OK...EXCEPT FOR KLAW AND
KSPS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY 10 TO 15 KTS AT TIMES OUT OF THE E/SE OVERALL.

KURTZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
SPRUCED UP POPS THIS EVENING AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE TREND.

DISCUSSION...
DEALING WITH TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...THE FIRST
OF WHICH...IS THE REMNANTS FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION THAT
MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE MOMENT...THIS LINE
REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING
ACROSS WRN N TX...JUST EAST OF THE CAPROCK...ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS
A WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH CONTINUES TO SHIFT WWD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY REMAINS RELATIVELY CONFINED TO THE SFC TROUGH
FROM JUST SW OF KNOX COUNTY TX THROUGH BORDEN COUNTY TX.
OVERALL...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK S/SE.
WITH 40 DEGREE SFC DEW POINTS...WIND REPORTS OUT OF THIS LINE HAS
BEEN IMPRESSIVE...WITH UPWARDS OF 100 MPH REPORTED WITH THE CELL
CURRENTLY OVER FISHER COUNTY TX.

EXPECT CURRENT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST TEXAS PLAINS
AND PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH ISOLATED
UPDRAFTS PERSISTING ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS WRN OK LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD...FORCING
THE SFC BOUNDARY EWD. MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION...BUT
APPEAR A BIT TO BULLISH WITH REGARDS TO TIMING.
NONETHELESS...INCREASED POPS SLOWLY AFTER 00Z THROUGH 06Z FOR WRN
OK. WITH MODEST WIND FIELDS AND DEW POINTS...A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS.

KURTZ

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN STRONG
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY PERSISTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...AND TRAINING STORMS...FLASH FLOODING HAS BECOME A
THREAT IN THIS AREA...AND AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING...AND NOT DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH OVER
AREA ROADWAYS.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM FOR FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...EVEN AS FAR EAST AS THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO.
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE 4 TO 6 AM TIME FRAME
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LARGE
HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

DESPITE MID LEVEL RIDGING...A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SURFACE HEATING
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING
TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT ISOLATED BOUTS OF
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN THEN.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE PERHAPS A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE OF
AN ISSUE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT RAINFALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY FROM
NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  77  63  81 /  50  40  30  20
HOBART OK         64  84  64  84 /  70  40  40  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  88  66  88 /  70  30  50  30
GAGE OK           59  80  62  84 /  60  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  75  62  83 /  70  30  20  30
DURANT OK         65  82  63  84 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/04/04