000
FXUS64 KOUN 161920
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORM/HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HRRR...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF I-40 BY
4 PM...THEN CONGEAL INTO A LINE OR CLUSTER AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BETWEEN
4 AND 7 PM. WICHITA FALLS MAY BE AFFECTED 9 TO 11 PM. INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS.

SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND UP
TO 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES IN 1-2 HOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE LAST SEVEN DAYS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD
ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING OF THE GROUND. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS
VERY LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT IF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL
OCCUR DUE TO MARGINAL SHEAR.

LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER LINE OR CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY
LESS DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT...THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THIS LINE MAY ENTER FAR
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. THIS LINE MAY WEAKEN
AS IT GETS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS THE FIRST LINE/CLUSTER
OF STORMS MAY STABILIZE THE AIR.

MONDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY NEAR AND EAST
OF I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHERE BEST HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND...HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
THAT ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL OCCUR.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE OVER THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH STORMS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL CAPPING INCREASES.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...HOT AND RAINFREE WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HEAT INDICES MAY BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL OF 105 DEGREES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  86  70  84 /  70  60  30  30
HOBART OK         70  93  68  88 /  70  30  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  95  71  88 /  70  40  40  40
GAGE OK           65  88  65  84 /  80  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     66  85  66  85 /  80  60  20  20
DURANT OK         71  90  71  87 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17