000
FXUS64 KOUN 191148
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
648 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS OCCURRING NEAR KLAW BASED
ON RADAR DATA SO MENTIONED IT IN TAFS. DID NOT MENTION IT ANYWHERE
ELSE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
15Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KHBR-KOKC-KPNC AFTER
06Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ADDED VCTS 20-23Z AT KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC AND 21-01Z AT KWWR AND
KGAG WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE. IF TSRA DIRECTLY
AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE...BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER AND GUSTY VARIABLE
WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...IS THE MAIN CONCERN.

THROUGH 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING...A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA LINE...PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AS WELL AS POSSIBLE SMALL
HAIL...THOUGH THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINLY STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BETWEEN 7 AM AND 2 PM CDT TODAY...CAPPING WILL LIKELY PREVENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THINK THE AIR WILL HEAT UP NICELY WITH
SOME SUN AND RECOVER FROM CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING. WENT
TOWARDS THE WARMER 00Z METMOS NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE TRIPLE DIGITS
WILL OCCUR AGAIN. THE RECORD HIGH OF 102 AT WICHITA FALLS TODAY
HAS A GOOD SHOT OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN.

REGARDING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 3 AM CDT MAINLY IN THE SPC
MODERATE RISK AREA NORTHEAST OF A MEDFORD TO LAWTON TO SEMINOLE
LINE. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE HRRR/SREF SUGGEST FIRST
STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST EAST OF A DRYLINE...FROM
DUNCAN TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO PONCA CITY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM CDT TIME
FRAME. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY FIRST OCCUR
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARD...THEN PERHAPS
CONSOLIDATING INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST WITH HAIL AND
WIND POTENTIAL. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...40-50 KT...WITH SIMILAR INSTABILITY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY... MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG. THERE IS SOME
CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH
CLOUD BASES ABOVE 5000 FT AND DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG MAY LIMIT
THIS POTENTIAL.

LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AND/OR MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A FRONT FROM
AN ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY LINE MAY HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

ON TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME PERHAPS
SEVERE...MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF I-44.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY FOR NOW. WITH DECENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
FORECAST...A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS FORECAST. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO THIS TIME FRAME.

MBS

FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING BETWEEN 1 PM AND 9 PM CDT FOR MUCH
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE
VERY HOT...VERY DRY...AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WEST
OF A DRYLINE. WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...THINK
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN MAV/METMOS NUMBERS.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  66  87  64 /  40  30  50  60
HOBART OK        100  63  94  61 /  10  10  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX 104  71  97  66 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           92  53  86  55 /  20  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     89  64  84  61 /  50  40  50  60
DURANT OK         90  71  88  69 /  20  50  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ033-036-037.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

23/17/17