000
FXUS64 KOUN 180716
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
216 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS THE FIRST OF AT LEAST 3 DAYS OF EXPECTED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE VERY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS WILL PERSIST AND
WAIT FOR THE APPROACH OF A DRYLINE TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH ALONG THE DRYLINE. AT
LEAST IN A FEW AREAS, THE CAP SHOULD BE OVERCOME RESULTING IN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
EVENING A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER TODAY
WHEN THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH. MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTING SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE EVEN STRONGER SUNDAY. DRYLINE MIXING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR EARLIER AND A FRONT WILL BE PRESSING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT, A TRIPLE POINT IN NORTHWEST OR WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST WITH THE DRYLINE. BY THE TIME OF
THUNDERSTORM RE-INITIATION, THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EXCLUDE THE WESTERN QUARTER OF OKLAHOMA, BUT CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BE IN AREAS OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
AND HIGH SHEAR. TORNADOES AND EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE
EVENING WILL INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW AND STILL BE DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
MONDAY, BUT THE LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WHEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER. EVEN A GOOD CHANCE
REMAINS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK A
CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS WITH EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MODERATELY MOIST
AIRMASS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  68  90  68 /  20  20  30  40
HOBART OK         98  66  97  67 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  68  98  70 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           95  60  92  59 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     88  70  89  67 /  20  30  50  60
DURANT OK         92  68  90  69 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/09