000
FXUS64 KOUN 121727
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY BACK LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  GFS IS A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING WIND SHIFT TO NEAR I-40
BEFORE STALLING EARLY THURSDAY. WILL MENTION WIND SHIFT
AT GAG/WWR/PNC MAINLY AFTER 6 Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ELSEWHERE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

UPDATE...
A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW OK TODAY. OVERALL
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT MOST
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KGAG AND KWWR. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS NORTHWEST OK BY 18Z...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
IN THESE AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...
DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA WESTWARD INTO TEXAS AND NEW
MEXICO. THIS WILL SUPPRESS CLOUD COVER AND LEAD TO VERY HOT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WESTWARD TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A FEW
SPOTS WILL EVEN EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DANGEROUS
HEAT INDICES OF 105 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS. OUTDOOR WORK SHOULD BE
RELEGATED TO MORNING OR EVENING HOURS...AS DANGEROUS HEAT IS
EXPECTED. FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY MEASURES TO PROTECT AGAINST ILLNESS
OR INJURY.

WHILE IT WONT BE QUITE AS HOT TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY...WE CAN
STILL EXPECT MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...WITH LOW
100S OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN
CONTINUING DROUGHT OUT WEST...THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE HOTTER
DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING.

A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AS THE DOMINANT
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
A WEAK UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH SUBSTANTIAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...EXPECT
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD
FAVOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...THOUGH 90S WILL STILL BE THE RULE. THIS
FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...AND WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
OR LESS FROM MONDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  94  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         72 100  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  73  99 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           73  99  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     71  90  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$