000
FXUS64 KOUN 181410 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
REMOVED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. INCREASED HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO...TWEAKED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES AND NO RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING.

MCV/COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE REST
OF TODAY BASED ON LATEST HRRR/RAP13...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE DUE
TO STRONG CAPPING. A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING.

MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER HEATING. THUS...
INCREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WITH AN MCS THIS MORNING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS...SKIES WILL REMAIN BKN TO OVC. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODEST AMOUNTS
OF LIFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW TO MID
SCT TO BKN STRATUS DECK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...GREATEST AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FOR THE MOMENT...STILL
LACKING CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE...BUT ENOUGH EXISTS TO
MENTION -TSRA AT KGAG AND KWWR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS STORMS MOVE
OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. OVERALL...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT AND SET UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS CONVECTION IS PART OF A LARGER MCV
CENTERED OVER ABILENE...WITH ACTIVITY STRETCHED FROM THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU TO THE TEXOMA REGION. NORTHWEST OF THIS MCV...SCATTERED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE E/SE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM AND
THE TX PANHANDLE AMID A REGION OF SFC CONVERGENCE FROM ERN NM
THROUGH SWRN KS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY...WITH SHALLOW RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR WRN N TX AND
FAR SRN OK AS THE CURRENT MCV CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF TO THE EAST.
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS WRN OK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...WITH A STOUT
SFC TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEVELOP FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO THE
PANHANDLES/FAR WRN OK. WITH INCREASING SFC CONVERGENCE AND THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MID-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE
CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING. THEN...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S...APPROACHING THE
100S ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

OF NOTE...LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS HAVE HINTED AT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NWRN OK SUNDAY AS A SFC LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...BUT OVERALL CHANCES REMAIN LOW.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  85  69  86  70 /   0  10  30  20
HOBART OK         90  68  93  70 /   0  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  92  72 /  10  20  30  10
GAGE OK           89  65  89  69 /  10  30  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     86  68  86  70 /   0  10  30  20
DURANT OK         88  70  89  71 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03