000
FXUS64 KOUN 180455
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF KSPS WITHIN THE PAST
HALF HOUR. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THIS MAY DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND WILL
LOOK AT THE STATUS OF THIS WHEN IT THE TAFS ARE ISSUED. STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT LOOKS LESS LIKELY IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND WILL
NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE 06Z TAFS DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW
PROBABILITY... BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A
COLD FRONT DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AND PERSISTENT
STRATUS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE
TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE NE FA AROUND A MCV...BUT ANY OTHER MOIST
CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR FA ACROSS N TX. ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL INITIALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS MAY TRY
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR TX ZONES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR FA SO
HAVE ISOLATED HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN BORDERS. A SFC HIGH
UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDWEST AND NE OK
TOMORROW KEEPING HIGH TEMPS BELOW AVG. POPS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST LATE TOMORROW THROUGH MID DAY WED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ROUNDS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. DO NOT
EXPECT A LOT OF PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THINK HIGH CHC POPS
APPEAR REASONBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO PLACE.

SIGNFICANT POPS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER WED...BUT DID MENTION
SOME SLIGHT TO LOW END CHCS FOR THURS AM AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL ALSO BE
TRUE ACROSS THE NW BY FRI AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST ALLOWING A FEW
MORE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE
REGION...AND PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OK BY SAT AM.
OTHER THAN THESE LOW END POPS...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE WARMER
TEMPS THURS-SAT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE
FROM WEST TX THROUGH AT LEAST SW OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  85  69  84 /  10  10  50  50
HOBART OK         68  88  68  90 /  10  20  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  70  93 /  20  20  30  30
GAGE OK           64  85  65  87 /  20  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  86  68  84 /  10  20  40  40
DURANT OK         70  88  70  89 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$