000
FXUS64 KOUN 242332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N TX WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AREA AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...PRIMARILY
KSPS...KHBR...KCSM. VFR TO MVFR SCT TO BKN CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS...GUSTING INTO THE LOW 20S. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE S
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...REMAINING BREEZY...WITH GUSTS
CONTINUING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. CIGS WILL REMAIN
SCT TO BKN THROUGH SATURDAY...LIKELY LIFTING TO VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KURTZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND SEVERAL WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AROUND
PEAK HEATING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK. WHILE A STRAY
SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DUE TO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...WITH
LITTLE TO NO WIND SHEAR PRESENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE PULSE TYPE
STORMS WITH A LOCALIZED SMALL HAIL AND WIND THREAT THAN ANYTHING
ELSE.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
THIS WILL ALSO CORRESPOND TO A PERIOD OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...TO THE MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS DEPICT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY...INCREASING WIND SHEAR WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN WITH
MODELS DEPICTING VARIED SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  84  65  85 /  20  30  20  10
HOBART OK         65  86  65  90 /  30  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  86  66  91 /  30  30  20  10
GAGE OK           65  86  64  91 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  82  66  87 /  10  20  20  20
DURANT OK         66  82  66  86 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$