000
FXUS64 KOUN 190532
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ONGOING TSRA MAINLY NORTH OF KWWR-KOKC WILL AFFECT KPNC THROUGH 08-09Z.
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 KT AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS SITE.
THINK MOST...IF NOT ALL...TSRA WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF KWWR-KPNC-KOKC
BY 09Z. WINDS MAY A BIT ERRATIC NEAR KOKC...KOUN...KWWR...KGAG...AND KPNC
THROUGH 12Z WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 30 KT POSSIBLE.

KEPT MVFR CEILINGS FOR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC 11-19Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE MAY BE DECREASING.

ADDITIONAL TSRA WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 20Z WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT KWWR AND
KGAG 13-17Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OK EARLIER DUE TO
AN ONGOING HEATBURST IN THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
STAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR A VERY BUSY FEW DAYS
WRT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE
SCALE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

FOR TODAY... CAPPING INVERSION HAS HELD THINGS IN CHECK... BUT
MIDDAY SOUNDING ACROSS THE AREA SHOW ONLY MINIMAL CAP STILL
REMAINING. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS... SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY WITH THE
MAIN SFC BOUNDARIES RESIDING FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE
MAIN BODY OF THE STATE WITH AFTN STORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND MORE LIKELY AFFECTING CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA. AGAIN INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH END SEVERE STORMS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SFC
BOUNDARIES DOWN AND KEEP MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN
THE RISK ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE PARTICULARS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHAT HAPPENS THE DAY/NIGHT BEFORE.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM/HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE SFC FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA WITH
SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02/17