000
FXUS64 KOUN 171725
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDTIONS ARE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. MANY
AREAS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KOKC AND KOUN TODAY. WIDESPREAD
IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FOG
DISSIPATES SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP IN PARTS OF THE FA SO HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS IN AREA WHERE EXPECTED TO HANG ON THE LONGEST. MEANWHILE...
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY INCREASING IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...
WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 100 IN PARTS OF OUR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS COUNTIES. THE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND FOR A STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP IN OR NEAR THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING SO HAVE KEPT POPS REALLY LOW
/AROUND 10 PERCENT/ BUT PUT A MENTION OF ISOLATED STORM/S IN THE
WX GRIDS. WILL HAVE UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN MANY PARTS OF
OKALAHOMA UNTIL LATE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL
EXIST IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MOST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SOME
SUN TODAY WHEN TEMPERATURE RISE SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER THAN THEY
DID YESTERDAY. A DRYLINE MAY NUDGE INTO PART OF NORTH TEXAS
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE. SOME FOG COULD FORM
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT AND MOIST FLOW INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN REACH OF OKLAHOMA. THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO
THE EAST AND VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING UNTIL THE EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEARBY, FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE BUT RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE STORY CHANGES SUNDAY
WHEN OKLAHOMA COMES UNDER STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WHILE A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ASSOCIATE
TROUGH MAY DRIVE A FRONT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE MIXING BRINGS THE DRYLINE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST SECTOR WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME BECOMING SEVERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA APART FROM THE ROW OF COUNTIES NEAREST THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER WAVE ON MONDAY WILL INTERACTWITH
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THAN ON SUNDAY AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGE. CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, MORE THAN WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, WILL BE MORE
AFFECTED. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH. AFTER A COOLER AND CALMER TUESDAY, THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY RETURN NORTH WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES AGAIN AT MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  68  91  68 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         86  68  98  66 /  10  10  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  70  99  68 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           86  65  95  60 /  10  10  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     84  67  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         83  69  92  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$