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FLUS44 KOUN 190945
HWOOUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-200000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD...
TO ENID...TO EL RENO...TO LAWTON...AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
LAWTON...TO PAULS VALLEY...TO SEMINOLE. A SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS
THE MODERATE RISK AREA...AND IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
ARNETT...TO HOBART...TO SEYMOUR TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM
THROUGH 3 AM.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO MORE THAN 70 MPH
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA FROM NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY TO
MEDFORD AND PONCA CITY.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 2 PM UNTIL
3 AM.

DISCUSSION...
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...WARM...HUMID...AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL COVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING. BY MID-AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING
IS FORECAST TO GREATLY WEAKEN THE INVERSION. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE
EAST FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE...PLUS SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...SHOULD PUSH
A FEW UPDRAFTS THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
AND WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN
THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MAY 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS
PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.
$$

CMS