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FLUS44 KOUN 231447 AAB
HWOOUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
947 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
947 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA AND INCLUDES MUCH OF WESTERN...PARTS OF CENTRAL...
AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM MANGUM...TO
FREDERICK...TO WAURIKA...AND INCLUDES TEXAS COUNTIES WEST OF
HENRIETTA. THIS INCLUDES WICHITA FALLS AND VERNON TEXAS. THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM ARNETT...TO WEATHERFORD...
TO PURCELL...TO DURANT...AND INCLUDES WESTERN PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METRO...INCLUDING NEWCASTLE AND MOORE.

IMPACTS...
THE MAIN HAZARDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 70 MPH. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MODERATE RISK AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL...NORTHERN...AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME
AREAS.

TIMING...
IN THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT CDT. THE
STORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...
EXTENDING FROM PONCA CITY...SOUTHWARD TO KINGFISHER...
EL RENO...AND NORMAN. THESE STORMS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...POSING MAINLY A FLOODING RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING THREAT. ONE STORM OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY 11 AM.

THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
ARE EXPECTED...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TENNIS BALL OR LARGER
HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL
LINE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN
HAZARDS. STORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

EAST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO...ADA...DURANT...AND
ARDMORE AREAS...SLIGHTLY BETTER CAPPING MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IF THE CAP CAN BE
OVERCOME...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
A TORNADO OR TWO. CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE STORMS IN THESE
AREAS IS LOW COMPARED TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY LED TO SEVERAL
OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING.  RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE FLOODING THREAT.

RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK NEAR CANEY
IN ATOKA COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
NOON TODAY...WITH UPDATES AS NEEDED.

$$

MBS/CMS/AUSTIN