000
FLUS44 KOUN 211005
HWOOUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
500 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS TEXAS...
TO SHAWNEE OKLAHOMA.

IMPACTS...
IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE A RISK OF HAIL
UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM NOW
THROUGH 8 PM. THE RISK WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS UNTIL 8 PM.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA...INTO
NORTH TEXAS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS SAME REGION. AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL
HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THIS FRONT FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. INITIALLY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BY AFTERNOON...LARGER
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERNS...AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO GREATER INSTABILITY AND MORE
SUPPORTIVE WINDS...THE RISKS OF VERY LARGE HAIL...VERY STRONG
WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL INCREASE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MAY 22.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. STORMS TOMORROW...IF THEY FORM AT ALL...ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.
$$

CMS