Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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410 FXUS63 KABR 010835 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 335 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and rain developing through the day from west to east, lasting through most of Thursday. Rain totals range from a few tenths to over a half inch. - Active pattern continues in the extended period, with at least three systems affecting the region. The first two (Thursday night, Friday night) bringing generally light rainfall and very low chances for severe weather. The third one on Monday potentially wetter, with better thunderstorm chances. - Near to below normal temperatures Friday and Saturday, warming to above normal Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A weak shortwave ridge is in place this morning, however embedded within southwest flow that becomes more dominant, we see mid level moisture advect into the region through the course of the day. This very subtle wave helps develop a low in Wyoming that drifts northeast, while a stronger low develops to the south tonight. Moisture associated with both features lingers through Thursday afternoon. With mainly mid level forcing, not expecting much thunder with these systems. NBM spread (25th/75th percentiles) in total moisture ranges from just a few tenths to a half inch. GEFS plumes is about the same. Should at least get enough sunshine today to score a high around average at least. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Thursday night we`ll see shortwave energy departing the region, with lingering rainfall chances (20-40%) across the northern CWA. Very little instability is noted in the models during the Thursday night time period. GEFS/GEPS/ENS all showing mean QPF values below 0.10in as well, so expecting just light shower potential as the shortwave departs. Next shortwave moves through Friday night, but is rather progressive and once again lacks instability. In fact, NBM thunder probabilities are under 10%. As for precipitation, don`t see many signs pointing towards heavy rainfall. Even 75th percentile 24-hr precip ending at 18Z Saturday is under 0.50in. After the aforementioned shortwave departs on Saturday, we actually get some upper level ridging building in across the Northern Plains into Sunday. GEFS/GEPS/ENS all showing mean 850mb temps generally ranging from +11C to +14C by 06Z Monday. This means we`ll see highs warm rather nicely by Sunday once the upper ridge is overhead. Current highs feature 70s across the region Sunday and even into Monday. Will then be watching for perhaps a stronger low pressure system moving into the region Monday into Monday night. As expected, cluster analysis shows there are some differences amongst GEFS/GEPS/ENS in regards to how deep the trough is, but looks to potentially be a better rain maker than the two waves mentioned previously. GEFS/GEPS/ENS also show a bit more instability due to an extended southerly low-level fetch into the Northern Plains bringing moisture northward. Although, CAPE means are still all below 1000 J/KG. Grand Ensemble 75th percentile 24-hr precipitation ending at 12Z Tuesday is between 0.50-0.75in. It`s also showing mean PWAT values around 1 inch across the eastern CWA at 00Z Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions for all terminals. Eventually showers and CIGS AOA 6-8kft will move into the region as winds reorganize and become southerly. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Connelly LONG TERM...TMT AVIATION...Connelly