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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181040
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
640 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions are expected today. A backdoor cold
front drops south of the area late this afternoon through
tonight, with a stronger cold front crossing the region Friday
night. Rain chances increase late Sunday into early Monday as
low pressure tracks along a stalled frontal boundary across the
Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Early morning wx analysis shows low pressure located along a frontal
boundary over the upper eastern shore/southern DE, while an upper
shortwave is passing by just to our north. It is very mild with
temps in the 60s due to being in the warm sector south of the low.
The low will move offshore today and will drag a very weak cold
front through the are later this morning. Winds turn to the W then
NW behind the front but there will be little to no CAA (outside of
the MD Ern Shore) through the day. Outside of some low clouds on the
MD eastern shore (especially during the morning after the front
comes through), skies will average mostly sunny. With downsloping W-
NW winds and little in the way of CAA, temperatures will rebound
into the lower-mid 80s in most areas by the aftn (with 70s on the
eastern shore). Areas along the coast will probably see highs early
in the aftn with falling temperatures during the mid-late aftn
period as the flow turns onshore as a backdoor cold front arrives
from the NE.

That backdoor cold front will pick up speed as it crosses the area
from NW-SE from late this aftn-tonight, and am expecting it to move
SW of the CWA by late tonight with winds becoming NE area-wide
(could actually see some gusts to 25 mph near the coast this evening
for a few hours right after the front pushes through). Temps quickly
drop into the 50s after the FROPA and forecast lows range from the
mid 40s to lower 50s. In addition, low stratus will overspread the
entire area overnight with the onshore flow behind the front
(although not really expecting much in the way of fog with 5-15 mph
winds).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Strong low pressure tracks from the Canadian Prairies to
Ontario/Quebec from today-Friday evening, and this will push a
stronger cold front toward the region (which will approach from the
NW). The backdoor front is progged to retreat during the day on Fri
as that stronger cold front approaches. The temperature forecast
will depend on how fast that front retreats (and also how quickly
the low stratus burns off). Have trended the forecast cooler
(especially near the immediate Atlantic coast and on the eastern
shore) where temps likely won`t get out of the 60s. Temps may
struggle to reach 60F on Fri in/near Ocean City. Still think it
warms well into the 70s-80F across interior srn VA and NE NC. The
greatest amount of uncertainty with respect to temps on Fri is near
the RIC Metro/I-64 Corridor (where model solutions range from the
60s to mid 70s).

Rain chances will return, though not until later Friday afternoon.
Rain will be scattered at first before increasing in coverage a bit
more after ~8pm. Any chances for thunderstorms will likely be
focused across the west/southwest portion of the CWA since the
backdoor cold front will be retreating across the east. All of that
being said, this is not looking like a major rain event, or even
moderate rain for that matter. QPF forecasts are still showing
barely .10-.20" in a few spots, though that may even be a stretch.
The front likely moves south of the FA by the middle of Saturday
morning, and isolated to perhaps scattered showers will likely
linger over the area through that time (and potentially Sat aftn
across far SE VA/NE NC...although PoPs are only 20% given the
expected lack of coverage). We should see at least partial clearing
over the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the area by Sat aftn as drier air filters
in behind the front. As of now, forecast highs Sat are in the upper
60s-lower 70s (although it may be cooler if clouds/showers linger
longer than expected...which seems most likely across srn portions
of the area).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

A stronger shot of CAA arrives Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Low temperatures will dip into the mid 40s. On Sunday, a southern
stream low pressure system is progged to move out of the Gulf Coast
states and into the Carolinas. The system then deepens offshore
Sunday night into Monday. This means that rain chances will return,
potentially by Sunday afternoon, and continue Sunday night into
Monday. The main forecast challenge lies in figuring out how far
north the rain will get, and this will have an impact on high temps
Sunday and potentially Monday if light rain lingers near the area on
the back side of the system. Forecast highs are in the 60s on both
days, but temps will drop into the 50s on Sun once the rain arrives
(and won`t get out of the 50s on Mon if the rain lingers long
enough). Exact details will be worked out in the coming days, but
have likely PoPs in far SE VA/NE NC late Sun-Mon AM tapering to
slight chance from LKU-SBY. High pressure briefly builds over the
area Tue AM before another system brings shower chances to the area
by Wednesday. Although it will be cool Tuesday morning, temps should
rebound nicely during the day as the high moves offshore and winds
become southerly.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail at this hour except for IFR stratus at
SBY. Expect this to persist through ~14z before lifting.
Otherwise, VFR through this evening with dry wx. Expect clear
skies outside of FEW-SCT cumulus during the late morning-aftn.
Winds will be NW at 5-10 kt. Then, a backdoor cold front
crosses the terminals from NE to SW between 21-03z. Winds become
NE at ~10 kt (could see a brief period of 20 kt gusts near the
coast) following the FROPA. In addition, MVFR-IFR stratus
likely overspreads the entire area tonight/early Fri AM as the
front moves well SW of the terminals. MVFR to IFR CIGs are
likely at all of the terminals after 06z Fri.

Outlook: Conditions slowly improve Friday (although restrictions
may persist near the coast through much of the day) as the
backdoor front retreats to the NE. A stronger cold front arrives
from the NW and crosses the area late Friday/Friday night with
scattered showers. Rain chances generally end after Sat morning,
but return later Sunday into early Monday as low pressure
passes through the Carolinas.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Early this morning, weak low pressure was just off the srn DE
coast with a cold front extending from the low westward into
West VA. Winds were SW 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the
waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-3 ft.

A backdoor cold front will drop across the waters from NE to SW
this aftn into this evening. Winds become N then NE behind the
front with speeds increasing to 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt
this evening into tonight. The strongest NE winds will be over
the nrn three coastal zns with 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt
expected. Seas will build to 4-6 ft in these zns also. For now,
will go with NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the mouth of
the Bay with no SCA. However, have issued a SCA for the coastal
zns from Fenwick Island to Cape Charles Light (650-654) due to
winds/seas. The SCAs will start this evening at 7pm (650-652) or
10 pm (654). The SCA for zn 654 will last until 10 am Fri, while
the SCA for (650-652) will last until 5 pm Fri.

A series of fronts will move through the region Fri into Sat.
The backdoor front returns north ahead of another cold front
set to cross the waters early Sat. N winds will follow the
second front but will be below SCA levels. Expecting conditions
to remain below SCA levels from Sat into Sun evening.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JKP
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI/JKP
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...TMG