Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
739
FNUS71 KAKQ 010845
FWSAKQ
Spot Forecast for Nassawango...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
445 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.
.DISCUSSION...
A weak front drops through the area today with morning clouds
giving way to a mostly sunny sky by this afternoon. The biggest
challenge today will be a changing wind direction. Winds start off
primarily out of the W to NW during the morning hours, becoming E
and then SE during the mid afternoon hours (approx 3-4 PM). The
onshore wind will keep RH values at our above 50% for much of
today.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the
southeast 6 to 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 3 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest 6 to
8 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (22900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................13 to 32.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........82 71 60 49 49 49 49 42 34 26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0
Temp............66 69 71 74 76 77 78 77 77 76
RH..............81 73 68 62 56 54 50 52 52 54
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW N N N NE NE E SE
20 FT wind spd..5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7
20 FT wind gust.9 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.9 2.6 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.0 3.4 2.9
Transp wind dir.NW N N N N N NW NW SW S
Transp wind spd.8 9 8 8 6 5 3 5 6 8
LVORI...........4 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
ADI.............13 20 25 32 28 22 18 21 26 28
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 14 19 23 20 16 14 15 19 19
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Patchy fog after
3 am.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (14400 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (1200 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................2 to 21.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........23 19 16 16 16 16 18 19 20 27 33 39
Weather cov..... PTY PTY
Weather type.... FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............73 69 65 63 61 60 58 58 57 57 57 56
RH..............59 66 75 81 84 87 93 93 96 96 96 100
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE S S SE SE S S S
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2
20 FT wind gust.11 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 3 3 3 3
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.8 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 3
LVORI...........2 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 10
ADI.............21 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14 9 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog early
in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 2 to 10 mph shifting to the southwest 13
to 15 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (62000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................1 early in the morning increasing to 83 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........40 42 25 15 11 9
Weather cov.....PATCHY
Weather type....FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............57 62 72 80 84 84
RH..............100 90 64 49 41 40
20 ft wind......S 2 S 3 S 5 SW 7 SW 9 SW 8
20 ft wind gust.5 7 9 12 14 14
Mix hgt (ft)....500 600 2100 3600 5200 4500
Transport wind..S 3 S 3 SW 10 SW 14 W 14 W 15
LVORI...........10 6 2 1 1 1
ADI.............1 3 27 61 82 82
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 2 18 44 62 61
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD
$$
Forecaster...BUTNER
Requested by...Gabriel Devin Cahalan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412876.0/AKQ
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL gcahalan@tnc.org