Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 220916
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Daniels...Fort Walker
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
516 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on March 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure remains over the area into this afternoon before
sliding offshore. Remaining dry (although much improved from
previous days) into this afternoon with RH values dropping to 35-40%
by early this afternoon. Light NE winds early this morning become
E 5-10 mph by late morning, becoming SE ~10 mph this afternoon.
Mostly sunny skies with some cirrus this morning, becoming mostly
cloudy by this afternoon. With increasing moisture advection, dew
points and RH values gradually increase later this afternoon into
this evening. A low pressure system approaches the area late
today into Sat, bringing increasing moisture and a widespread
wetting rain with 1.5-2"+ of rain expected tonight through Sat.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast 14
                    to 17 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (52400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................11 early in the morning increasing to 60 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  31  35  45  54  64  65  67  69
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10
Temp............39  44  48  50  53  56  56  56  56
RH..............57  47  42  42  39  38  40  43  45
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..4   5   5   6   6   7   7   7   8
20 FT wind gust.7   9   9   12  12  13  13  13  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.3
Transp wind dir.E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.7   10  14  15  15  15  16  17  17
LVORI...........2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............11  28  50  60  39  41  43  44  43
Haines index....3   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7   19  35  42  48  52  52  52  49
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    early in the evening. Rain late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (33200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................6 to 34.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........73  77  80  86  91  97  98  99  100 100 100 100
Weather cov.....        CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....        RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  50  50  50  90  90  90  100 100 100 100
Temp............54  52  51  50  50  50  50  51  51  52  52  53
RH..............50  56  61  68  74  80  83  86  89  89  93  96
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..8   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.14  13  13  12  11  11  11  11  8   8   11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.16  15  14  13  12  10  9   8   8   8   8   9
LVORI...........1   2   2   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   6   6
ADI.............34  17  12  11  8   7   6   6   7   7   8   8
Haines index....3   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..33  18  6   5   5   5   4   3   3   3   3   3
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain in the morning
                    and early afternoon, then rain showers likely
                    late in the afternoon. Chance of rain showers
                    late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the north 10
                    to 13 mph with gusts to around 22 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 10 mph increasing to north 14 to 23
                    mph late in the afternoon, then increasing to
                    around 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (41000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................5 early in the morning increasing to 47 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........100    100    100    100    100    95
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).100    100    100    100    70     70
Temp............53     54     56     56     55     55
RH..............96     96     96     93     90     83
20 ft wind......E 7    E 8    E 9    NE 10  N 11   N 13
20 ft wind gust.12     14     14     15     19     22
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    700    900    1100   1600
Transport wind..E 10   SE 10  SE 6   E 8    NW 18  N 23
LVORI...........6      6      7      6      4      4
ADI.............9      12     6      10     26     40
Haines index....3      2      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4      4      3      6      18     33
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...MILLER
Requested by...Beth Cantrell
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2407902.0/AKQ
.DELDT 03/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL beth.cantrell.civ@army.mil


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