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000
FXUS64 KAMA 160513
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Morning observations show the stout upper level low progressing as
anticipated, situated near the Utah-Colorado border as of 17z
analysis. At the sfc, a 998mb low is deepening over NE Colorado and
drawing moisture into the eastern combined Panhandles, where dew
pts are currently in the mid 50s to low 60s. This is where the
dry line is expected to set up this afternoon and evening, roughly
along/east a Perryton to Pampa to Clarendon line. Observed
soundings and latest mesoanalysis depict strong capping in place
across the moist/unstable sector east of the dryline, leading to a
highly conditional threat of thunderstorm development along the
TX-OK border after 3 PM.

12z suite of hi-res CAMs try to hint that sfc forcing may be
sufficient to generate attempts of convective initiation before 7
PM, but struggle to maintain any organized updrafts with time.
Some model forecast soundings show the cap eroding ever so
slightly this afternoon, but barely. Given how strong capping is,
along with high level cloud cover in place to limit heating,
wouldn`t be surprised to see early attempts at thunderstorm
development in our far eastern areas gradually fail, eventually
turning into "orphan anvils". The more likely opportunity for
convection to be sustained would be later this evening from 6 PM
to midnight across the far northeast combined Panhandles, when the
dryline retreats into a pacific front and upper level ascent is
maximized. If any storms are able to survive as we go through the
evening hours, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate
instability will be available, in a strongly sheared environment.
This would mostly favor a large hail risk, however would be more
than sufficient to support an isolated tornado threat if storms
can become sfc based. There is a 60-80% chance that storms don`t
even develop today, but if any organized convection does
materialize, it will likely be severe.

Breezy west-southwesterly winds gusting up to 45 mph and very low
RH values less than 10% exist west of the dryline, lending
critical fire weather concerns, especially across the northwest.
Expect these conditions to persist through the evening. Winds will
continue to blow overnight, albeit lighter than this afternoon,
around 15-25 mph.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

An impressive upper-level trough will be to the north of the
Panhandles to begin Tuesday with the Panhandles in the left entrance
region for much of the day. A sub-990mb surface low in Nebraska but
the surface pressure gradient will be quite steep across the CWA
suggesting breezy to windy conditions will be ongoing. Forecast
soundings suggest the near surface inversion may not be too strong
due to the breezy overnight winds, thus it may not take long for
daytime heating to begin mixing some stronger winds down. Winds
aloft are generally forecast to be stronger in the morning hours
which suggests the peak gusts should be primarily in the morning
hours. The exception to this is that a stronger jet will move in to
a portion of the Oklahoma Panhandle in the mid to late afternoon
hours which introduces the potential for some wind gusts between 40
to 45 mph. Can`t entirely rule out a 50 mph wind gust, but it would
be an isolated occurrence.

Attention then turns to Wednesday night when a surface low develops
in southeastern Colorado and moves east. A strong cold front comes
in behind it with rapid surface pressure rise and a steep surface
pressure gradient leading to windy conditions behind the front. As
is typical with strong cold fronts, there are significant timing
differences regarding when the cold front moves through; NAM brings
the front in around 6 hours quicker than the GFS and ECMWF. Will
lean toward the NAM solution as strong cold fronts typically come in
quicker than the global models forecast. This front will bring in
cool temperatures for the weekend, with Saturday being the coolest.
Some locations in the northwest are currently forecast to stay below
50 degrees all day, while the rest of the CWA stays below 60.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail with breezy west winds
around 15 to 20 kts. KDHT and KGUY may see those winds gusting
upwards of 35 kts after 16Z and before 00Z Wednesday with a more
northerly shift in direction as a front creeps into the northern
Panhandles. Skies should remain mostly clear with a few high
clouds.

36

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Breezy west-southwesterly winds and very low RH values exist west
of the dryline, lending critical fire weather concerns,
especially across the northwest. RFTIs of 4 to 8 have developed in
these areas, where winds have already gusted 40-50 mph with RH
values of 5-10%. Expect these conditions to persist through the
afternoon and early evening.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday
across the Oklahoma Panhandle as well as northern and western
sections of the Texas Panhandle. Northwest winds are forecast in
the 25-35 mph range, with gusts of 40-50 mph. Air won`t be quite
as dry tomorrow, but minimum RH values will be as low as 10-20%.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                86  51  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  89  50  81  45 /  10  30   0   0
Boise City OK              82  47  76  43 /   0   0   0  10
Borger TX                  92  53  86  50 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              88  53  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  87  48  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               84  51  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 83  45  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  89  45  78  43 /   0  10   0   0
Hereford TX                86  51  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                87  52  82  48 /   0  30   0   0
Pampa TX                   86  52  82  49 /  20  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                83  54  84  50 /  10  20   0   0
Wellington TX              83  54  84  49 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ001>006.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...36