Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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362 FXUS64 KAMA 280756 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 256 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 A weak cold front has been cruising south through the area tonight, bringing in a marginally cooler air mass with northwest winds. The upper level system associated with yesterday`s gusty conditions and severe weather will continue to lift northward over the Plains today, leaving the Panhandles with a beautiful spring Sunday. Winds will only be 10-20 mph, and high temperatures this afternoon should range from upper 60s across the northwest to upper 70s in the southeast. The far northwest to north central combined Panhandles could see some very light showers late this evening into the overnight hours when a minor shortwave disturbance passes overhead. Dry air will remain prevalent however, amounting to only a 10-20% chance for measurable rainfall. Subtle ridging aloft takes over Monday, allowing for the start of a much warmer week. Light south winds and highs in the 80s will return for most of the forecast area as a result. Harrel && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Tuesday will be a warm and dry day as zonal flow will continue across the Panhandles. Highs will almost be 90 across the board on Tuesday, with a couple of isolated areas in the upper 80s. Overall, winds will be tame in the 15 to 20 mph range with fairly low RH values. This will provide elevated to low end critical Fire Weather conditions. Wednesday will almost be a carbon copy to Tuesday temperature wise, but we are seeing signs of the dryline backing into the central Panhandles, and that will bring us the chance of showers and storms, possibly severe for the central and eastern Panhandles Wednesday evening. NBM pops have about a 20 to 30 percent chance for storms in the east on Wednesday evening, and that will suffice for the time being. Thursday`s highs will be a challenge as it all depends on how fast the next system moves through. Right now most highs are based on nearly optimum heating for most areas, as the front may not move through until after 1 pm for the OK Panhandle. That will give ample time for most areas to warm up. Position of the trough and residual moisture will play a role in the pop potential, but for now keeping NBM`s 20-30 percent for the southeast in the afternoon, and for the rest of the Panhandles during the evening hours. Most likely this will be isolated to widely scattered showers if we do get anything, so it`s not looking that great for areas in the central an western Panhandles. The front looks pretty strong given the nearly 20C 850mb temperature drop, and therefore would expect strong wind behind this front, with the winds relaxing after sunrise on Friday. Again, overnight showers will be possible as well, depending on the track and position of the system. Highs on Friday only be in the upper 60s to near 70. Saturday will likely return to the upper 70s to lower 80s as zonal flow with warmer air returns. NBM is giving some pops on Saturday, but overall it looks contingent on a shortwave moving through helping to kick off some storms. So confidence is not very high in the pops. Weber && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period. Some sporadic gusts will still be possible in the first few hours of the period, but winds will generally remain on the lower side out of the northwest through Sunday evening. Could see some MVFR ceilings near KGUY towards the end of the period, but the vast majority of clouds at any site will be mid to high level. Harrel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 74 46 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 75 42 81 52 / 10 10 10 0 Boise City OK 68 41 78 46 / 10 20 0 0 Borger TX 78 48 85 53 / 0 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 75 44 83 49 / 0 10 0 0 Canyon TX 74 46 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 76 49 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 71 39 79 44 / 10 10 0 0 Guymon OK 71 42 80 47 / 10 10 10 0 Hereford TX 76 44 82 50 / 0 10 0 0 Lipscomb TX 76 46 81 55 / 10 10 10 0 Pampa TX 74 47 81 53 / 0 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 78 49 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 79 49 82 55 / 0 0 10 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...38