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000
FXUS65 KBOI 142005
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
205 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Thunderstorms and
showers continue to pulse up this afternoon, with rain reported
as far east as Mountain Home as of 1:30 MDT and gusty outflow
winds to 39 mph reported at Burns, OR. Hi-res models are having
a difficult time with the more expansive coverage of the
precipitation this afternoon. The low center has moved into
California this afternoon, bringing waves of moisture that will
allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms throughout most of
the region through the night. Light precipitation is anticipated
in showers, although stronger storms could produce brief heavy
rain. Storms are not expected to be severe, but could produce
erratic and gusty outflow winds to 40-50 mph. Showers will be
most likely over higher terrain, around a 50-60% chance. Snow
levels will dip down near 6500-7500 feet, so high peaks will see
a dusting of snow from any precipitation. Temperatures will be
cooler today, about 5 degrees above normal compared to
yesterday`s 10-15 degrees above normal. Most lower elevation
valleys will reach the low 70s by the early evening.

As the upper level low moves east, northwesterly flow aloft
will build in quickly on Monday, bringing temperatures right
around to slightly below normal and gusty winds. Winds will be
highest in the Upper Treasure and Magic Valleys, with sustained
westerly winds around 25-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
anticipated through the night. Therefore, a wind advisory has
been issued for those zones for Monday evening into late Monday
night. By late Monday, dry and clear conditions will be on deck
for most of the region through the end of the period.

An upper level trough to our north will dig into the Pacific
Northwest, continuing the cooling trend and bringing a chance of
light snow for the West Central Mountains by Tuesday afternoon.
Accumulations will be minimal, and breezy northwest winds will
build in on Tuesday across the region.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The models are in much better
agreement with regard to the cooler midweek temperatures due to a
large upper trough that extends from southern Canada into the
northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. The below normal
temperatures on Wednesday will trend slightly warmer each day as the
trough weakens by the end of the week. Moisture remains limited to
central Idaho for a 15 to 30 percent chance of rain/snow showers.
Breezy conditions are expected as well, especially on Wednesday. The
dry conditions and warming trend continues into next weekend as weak
high pressure aloft moves in from the west. The latest model
guidance (including the GFS and EC) shows another Pacific system
moving into the Pacific Northwest early next week, with significant
differences in strength and timing. Due to this uncertainty,
forecast will show above normal temperatures on Sunday but with a
slight chance of showers (less than ~20 percent) in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across SE Oregon and mainly the higher terrain of SW
Idaho gradually diminishing tonight. Outflow wind gusts to 25-35 kt
near storms. Activity reaching KBNO, KBKE, KMYL, and possibly
KONO/KEUL/KBOI. Mountain obscuration with MVFR conditions in showers
and storms. Snow levels 6000 near the Nevada border and 7500 ft MSL
KBKE-KMYL. Surface winds: SW-SE 10-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SE-E 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Mid level clouds increasing this afternoon. Isolated
showers until Mon/03Z, with potential for a stray lighting strike.
Will need to monitor for erratic outflow wind gusts up to 30 kt from
nearby storm activity. Outside of storm outflows: S to SW surface
winds 10-20 kt shifting to NW 5-10 kt after Mon/03Z.
&&


&&

.HYDROLOGY...The Owyhee River below Owyhee Dam is expected to
remain above minor flood stage through at least Tuesday, then
lowering below flood stage on Wednesday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from noon Monday to midnight MDT Monday night
     IDZ014-016-030.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW
HYDROLOGY...SA