398
FXUS61 KBUF 061844
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
244 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region providing fair and dry
weather through Tuesday. A warm front will cross the region
Tuesday night through early Wednesday with some showers and a
chance of thunderstorms. Unsettled weather will then last the
rest of the week as a trough of low pressure slowly crosses the
Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery shows the low clouds have dissipated, with
just thin high cirrus filtering the afternoon sunshine. Temperatures
will continue to run a little above average, with highs mainly in
the 65-72 degree range. Light northwest flow will keep the southern
and eastern shores of Lake Ontario cooler.

Tonight high pressure will drift east from the Great Lakes into
Ontario and Quebec, maintaining dry and quiet weather across our
region. The high clouds will clear out and winds will be calm,
resulting in good radiational cooling conditions. Lows in the
low to mid 40s in most areas.

The surface high pressure ridge axis will gradually slide east
into New England, but it will keep the area rain-free during the
day Tuesday. Clouds will increase from the southwest during the
afternoon, with a small chance of a shower across the Western
Southern Tier towards sunset. Otherwise, pleasant and warm with
highs in the 70s inland. Cooler along the south shores of Lake
Ontario and Lake Erie due to a northeasterly lake breeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday night, a warm front extending from stacked low pressure
centered near North Dakota will move across the region from
southwest to northeast. This front is likely to generate some
convection upstream, with its remnants moving across our area.
Ample elevated instability to support some thunderstorms with
this, especially Tuesday evening. Although precipitation will be
convective, model agreement supports 70-80% PoPs for our area.

Showers will linger into Wednesday, especially east of Lake
Ontario where the front will be last to exit. However, most of
the day will be rain-free, especially across Western NY.
Following the warm frontal passage, temperatures will be above
normal with highs in the low to mid 70s for lower elevations south
of I-90. For Wednesday night, it appears our region will be in
between systems, with mainly rain-free weather. Chances for
showers will increase from the west late in the night.

The stacked low will finally open into a trough aloft and begin
to track slowly eastward Wednesday night through Thursday night.
With this, a surface reflection is forecast to track near the
NY/PA border Thursday night. Models typically struggle with the
progression of upper level systems like this, and there is some
model agreement on the track and timing but fairly good
agreement that there will be widespread showers as this system
moves through. Chances for thunderstorms will be mainly along
and south of the track of the low where there will be some
instability. Meanwhile, there will be higher chances for
precipitation north of the track since it will be more
stratiform precipitation there. This will also bring cooler
weather with below normal high temperatures on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers will mostly taper off from west to east late Friday
afternoon into the night as the sfc low tracks east. However,
some lingering showers will be possible Saturday morning,
especially east of Rochester with a cyclonic flow lingering over
the northeast. An incoming ridge for later Saturday will
eliminate any remaining showers that may exist across the area.

Another trough dropping southeast out of Canada and across the Great
Lakes will increase the shower potential starting Saturday night,
BUT there is still very much uncertainty among the models as to
track and timing of showers associated with the system. Currently
going with chance for showers for most of Sunday, but that can
certainly change either way.

Temperatures for the long term period will generally be near normal
for most of the period, except for Friday, which still looks cooler
than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will build across the area tonight, providing
confidence in VFR flight conditions for the 18Z TAFs. Just some high
cirrus this afternoon, which will move out of the area tonight.
Then some mid-level clouds will approach from the west lake
Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

Friday...MVFR. Showers likely.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure with negligible winds and waves through
Tuesday night. Onshore winds will pick up during the afternoon hours
due to lake breeze circulations. Southwest winds will briefly pick
up on Lake Erie on Wednesday behind a warm front. Then low pressure
passing by to the south will cause easterly winds to increase
Thursday and Thursday night with a potential for low-end small craft
headlines.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Apffel/SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel