996
FXUS62 KCAE 030523
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
123 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Southeast coast will be in control of
the weather across the region tonight. Once again there will be
the potential for some patchy fog and stratus during the early
morning and sunrise hours on Friday. The area of high pressure
will be moving away from the area on Friday allowing for more
moisture to move into the region. Warm conditions expected to
continue for Friday before rain chances steadily increase late
Friday evening into Saturday. Deep moisture convergence
coinciding with an upper level trough will drive widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday. Lingering moisture
and little changes aloft will yield further shower-storm chances
Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Fair. Isolated showers have dissipated with loss of heating.
Some increase in high level clouds possible late tonight, but
otherwise similar regime to previous days, with possibility of
late night fog/stratus developing, mainly over the southern half
of the forecast area where dewpoints are higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
After some patchy fog Friday morning, a generally dry and warm
day is expected, at least into the afternoon, as an upper ridge
remains overhead and a high pressure sits just offshore. The
upper ridge is forecast to stay generally in place through the
short term; however, a shortwave disturbance is expected to move
through the region. This feature brings increasing chances for
showers and some isolated thunderstorms beginning Friday
afternoon to the upper CSRA and gradually spreading eastward
overnight and into Saturday. Some stronger moisture convergence
on Saturday brings higher chances for more widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms to the area, but severe weather is
not likely due to a general lack of sufficient instability and
wind shear. With extensive cloud cover and more widespread
showers, temperatures Saturday are expected to be closer to
average or a little below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A summer-like pattern is expected to remain over the area for
much of the long term as the upper ridge stays generally in
place. A series of shortwaves moving through the broader flow
brings unsettled weather through midweek, with daily chances for
showers and embedded thunderstorms. The pattern begins to settle
down for the latter portions of the week ahead, with afternoon
highs expected to be well above average at the end of the long
term period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions at the moment. Restrictions in stratus, possible
fog toward morning with highest probability at OGB.


High pressure along the coast. Shallow low-level moisture across
the area this morning. There is potential for stratus and or fog
to develop near the coast by 08z and spread inland with focus
east and southeast of CAE/CUB/AGS. The guidance is hitting the
stratus harder than the fog at the moment, and given the
relatively large dew point depressions currently, this may be on
track. Either way there is the possibility of IFR or LIFR
toward 12z...especially at OGB. So went with low
ceiling/visibility restrictions at that terminal. Went with MVFR
at AGS as fog may come up river with weak southeast flow. At
other terminals VFR forecast with scattered stratus. Will
monitor trends and adjust accordingly. The low clouds and fog
should mix out mid morning with scattered cumulus and higher
clouds through the day with south winds around 5 to 10 knots
through the day. Air mass becomes more moist in the afternoon
and weakly unstable. Convective models suggest some scattered
showers or a thunderstorms may develop in Georgia and move into
the CSRA near the AGS/DNL terminals in the afternoon. Coverage
should be scattered. The showers may move into central SC but
more likely after 00z Saturday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Late night/early morning fog possible through the period.
Increased potential for showers and thunderstorms over the
Weekend into early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$