101
FXUS61 KCAR 161957
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
357 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain across the Interior Downeast
region tonight and gradually shift off shore on Friday. High
pressure ridges over the area this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Currently, a stationary front remains draped across the Central
Highlands and stretching NE into southern Aroostook County.
South of this boundary, the sea breeze has pushed northwards
well into the Interior Downeast region, with moderate rainfall
and isolated thunderstorms continuing into the late afternoon
hours. Both surface boundaries are slow moving, but should they
meet each other, could initiate further shower and storm
development into central Penobscot and southern Aroostook
counties early this evening. Otherwise, showers will decrease
into the overnight hours due to lack of diurnal heating and the
reversal of the sea breeze during nocturnal hours.

Friday will see a shift in the front positioning as it moves
offshore, yet a generally unsettled pattern will remain with
another approaching longwave trough. Rain showers may return to
the area, especially across the north, Friday afternoon around
peak diurnal heating. With the post-frontal environment along
the coast, the sea breeze on Friday is expected to be less
potent than seen this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper ridge will begin building in with diurnal showers dying
off over nwrn zones Friday evening. SFc ridge axis will nose in
from the northeast early Saturday morning and influence the
weather during the day on Saturday. With mostly cloudy
conditions expected temps will start off in the lower 50s on
Saturday and climb to around 70 inland with m/u 50s right along
the shore.

Ridge axis likely to impact the weather on Sunday with partly
cloudy skies expected late in the weekend. ENE winds on Sunday
will keep temps slightly cooler than Saturday with highs over
most inland areas around 70 degrees, if that.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface ridge axis will continue to bring  quiet wx to most of
the area on Monday. We will likely see a warm front lift over
the area on Tuesday, bring temps up into the 80s with u50s along
the coast. Surface high pressure will be shifting to the east
as upr lvl ridge also drifting east. 12z guidance looks to be
on different pages regarding breakdown of the ridge with GFS
bringing wave across CWA Tuesday afternoon through the night
and EC/CMC just giving our area a glancing blow. For the time
being have kept NBM/s idea of 20 pops for Wednesday.

As upr low slides twd the area, rain chances will begin to
increase toward the end of the week. Temperatures will be well
above normal on Tuesday and Wednesday while falling back but
still remaining above normal next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR cigs across the north this afternoon will
continue to lift into the evening, and may become VFR through
the early evening as showers dissipate. Winds will be light and
variable with various showers around the entire forecast area
interacting with each other. Occasional gusts over 15 kts are
possible near the stronger showers and storms. Showers will
dissipate overnight, but areas of dense fog may develop and
could limit visibilities, which is most likely to occur at
terminals near the coast, and cigs will likely lower towards
MVFR/IFR. Winds will remain light and variable. Cigs will lift
towards VFR once more on Friday with variable winds 5 to 10 kts.

SHORT TERM:
Friday night-Saturday night...Mainly VFR with ocnl MVFR at
times in light showers, mostly over northern terminals. Light E
Friday night and Saturday night, E 5-10kts Saturday.

Sunday-Monday...VFR. E 5-10kts becoming S 5kts Monday.

Tuesday...VFR with MVFR moving in late. SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels tonight through Friday. Wind gusts may approach 20 kts
early Friday morning prior to decreasing once more through the
day on Friday. Areas of dense fog possible overnight over the
waters, limiting visibilities.

SHORT TERM: Seas will be marginal but likely below 5ft Friday
night into Saturday morning in serly swell. Remainder of the
period will see winds and seas well below small craft levels
into early next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...AStrauser/Buster
Marine...AStrauser/Buster