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000
FXUS62 KCHS 160056
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
856 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist through the end of the week. A cold
front is then forecast to impact our area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KCLX radar showed a nice inland progression of the sea breeze
earlier before the onset of the strengthening nocturnal
inversion. What is left of the sea breeze circulation will
gradually unwind over the next few hours. A south to southwest
low-level flow will remain in place tonight under clear skies. A
few thin cirrus may pass through on occasion, but will not
amount to much of anything. Lows will range from the mid-upper
50s well inland to the lower-mid 60s at the beaches and
Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging will prevail aloft on Tuesday, slowly transitioning to zonal
flow on Wednesday as a mid-level trough traverses the Mid-Atlantic
states. Broad ridging will then return on Thursday. At the surface
high pressure will dominate, centered over the adjacent Atlantic
waters. Wednesday night into Thursday a weak cold front will
approach the local forecast area. The high pressure in place will
likely prevent the weak front from progressing too far into the
local area. There is a very low chance some shower activity could
occur Wednesday night, especially inland. However, it is highly
unlikely that these showers would reach the surface to produce
measurable rainfall. A dry forecast has been maintained.

Temperatures through the period will remain above normal through the
short term period, with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and mid
to upper 70s directly at the beaches. Overnight lows will also be
above normal, only dipping into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Broad ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will prevail
into the weekend. This weekend a short wave trough is forecast to
ripple across the southeastern states, with a cold front at the
surface pushing through the local forecast area. PoPs remain in the
20-40% range through the weekend, associated with the frontal
passage. Temperatures will remain above normal through Saturday.
Sunday`s temperature forecast will be dependent on how far southward
the cold front is able to work. The current forecast has above
normal temperatures across southeastern GA and near normal
temperatures across southeastern SC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
16/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 17/00z Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Overnight: Sea breeze enhancements in the Charleston Habor are
steadily waning. South to southwest winds 10-15 kt will prevail
for much of the night with seas averaging 2-3 ft.

Tuesday through Saturday: Conditions through the period are expected
to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. High pressure will
dominate over the local marine waters into the weekend, with SW
winds generally 10 to 15 knots. Seas are forecast to average 2 to 3
ft through the period. A sea breeze is expected to form each
afternoon along the coast, with the Charleston Harbor gusting to
around 20 knots.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$