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000
FXUS61 KCLE 171316
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
916 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Upper Midwest lifts a warm front north
across the region today. This system will then extend a cold
front east through the area through tonight. Another cold front
will cross the region towards the end of the week. High
pressure will return for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
916 AM Update... No major changes this morning to the actual
forecast and also the thoughts for the afternoon/evening severe
potential. Awaiting 12Z data and will be working on timing of
the initiation in NW OH this afternoon.


Original discussion...
Low pressure centered over the Upper Midwest will continue to lift a
warm front northeast across the Northern Ohio Valley this morning.
Widespread showers with embedded thunder will move east through the
morning and early afternoon hours today. A brief dry period this
afternoon as a dry slot moves in place ahead of a cold front
that enters from the west.

Regarding the severe weather potential, confidence has increased in
severe storms this afternoon and evening. Looking upstream, a fairly
impressive dry slot is taking shape over Missouri and southern
Illinois this morning and leading to wide scale clearing of low/mid
level cloud cover. There continues to be environmental support for
severe weather to initiate this afternoon and continue into the
evening hours. A fairly moist airmass will move into place
characterized by dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s and will
increase MUCAPE values to the 1500-2000 J/kg range and deep
layer shear of 35-40 knots. Curved hodographs in addition to
much of the shear occurring in the low levels will support
rotating storms with the potential to produce a tornado and
large hail. There remains the potential for damaging wind gusts
especially as discrete storms become more organized and linear
while moving eastward. As such, SPC has kept nearly all of our
area in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather with all
hazards possible.

Given the expansive dry slot forming to our west there is the
potential for storms to initiate anywhere between our CWA
border to just west of I-71. Latest hi-res guidance is already
picking up on a further east initiation around 6PM tonight which
would isolate the severe weather potential to locations along
an east of I-71. Will continue to monitor trends in latest hi-
res guidance and upstream observations with each forecast
update. QPF values have continued to decrease in addition to
fairly fast moving storms so the heavy rain and isolated
flooding threat continues a downward trend.

Cold front will continue to push remaining showers and storms
east overnight tonight and keep us dry for Thursday. High
temperatures in the 70s today ahead of the cold front as we
remain in the warm sector. Overnight lows tonight in the lower
50s with high temperatures on Thursday rising into the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level trough gradually builds in to the upper Great Lakes
Thursday night and Friday, with an occluded surface low beneath
this. A cold font extending south from this low moves east across
the region Thursday night into Friday with rain showers and perhaps
isolated thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday morning.
Confidence in precipitation continues to increase with increase PoPs
(to 70-90% areawide) reflecting this. A ridge of high pressure
extending from a high pressure center over the northern Great Plains
begins building in Friday night through Saturday night. Cooler
temperatures are expected behind the frontal passage with below
normal temperatures through the short term period. Low temperatures
into the 30s are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. Frost
conditions (36 degrees or lower and wind speeds less than 10 mph)
seems likely with ensemble guidance generally showing 40-60%
probabilities, with freeze conditions (temps of 32 or lower) much
less likely and probably more reserved to inland valleys (especially
interior parts of Northwest Pennsylvania). With the start of the
growing season, we may have a first shot at frost advisory or freeze
warning headlines this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure continues to build in on Sunday and Monday with below
normal temperatures continuing. May have another shot at
frost/freeze Sunday night into Monday morning, though ensemble
guidance currently is a couple degrees warmer than Saturday night,
so perhaps a lower probability of frost/freeze. High pressure
centered over the region on Monday departs to the east as an upper-
level trough approaches from the west, with increasing PoPs (around
20-40%) on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions persist across terminals this morning. Showers
are continuing to move eastward this morning but haven`t led to
any reductions to cigs/vis so far. Looking upstream, there are
a few sites reporting broken MVFR ceilings between 2000-2500 ft.
Unsure how expansive these MVFR ceilings will progress into the
region this morning before much drier air is ushered in.

Confidence in thunderstorms this afternoon has decreased for
terminals along I-75 (KTOL/KFDY) so opted to just have VCTS for
a period of time this afternoon. Recent guidance and trends have
indicated that thunderstorms will likely develop along a line
from KCLE to KMFD and points east around 21-22Z this afternoon.
Timed out thunderstorms and potential reductions to cigs/vis
with TEMPO groups from ~22Z/Wed to ~02Z/Thu as the cold front
swings eastward. Some storms may be severe with wind gusts to
50 knots and up to quarter-sized hail. Anticipating mainly VFR
conditions outside of MVFR cigs/vis in showers and storms.
Behind the cold front anticipate a return to VFR with a SCT/BKN
cloud deck around 5000 ft.

Southerly winds 10-12 knots will quickly increase this morning
to 12-18 knots with gusts to 20-25. Higher wind speeds and gusts
in strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. Behind the
frontal passage this evening winds turn westerly and decrease
below 12 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible for Friday into Saturday in rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds weaken and become southerly as a warm front lifts across Lake
Erie today. A cold front quickly follows with winds becoming
westerly tonight. Winds quickly become southerly again on Thursday
night with a cold front moving across the lake early Friday morning.
Westerly flow may approach 20 knots on Friday and again on Saturday
(though flow may be more southwest on Saturday). HIgh pressure
gradually builds in through Monday, so am expecting weakening winds
through that period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/26
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...Saunders