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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230554
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
154 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge extending from the Mid Mississippi Valley to the eastern
Great Lakes moves to the southeastern United States on Tuesday.
Low pressure tracks from near the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday to
southern Quebec on Wednesday and allows the trailing cold front to
sweep eastward through our region Tuesday night. Behind the front, a
ridge builds from the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes through
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A surface ridge exits slowly E`ward and SE`ward from our CWA through
tonight as a shortwave ridge aloft builds from the western Great
Lakes and eventually crests E`ward over our region. Simultaneously,
a potent shortwave trough moves from the north-central
U.S./south-central Canada border area to the Upper Midwest and
allows the attendant surface low to deepen slightly as it tracks
from southern MB toward Lake Superior. As this surface low
interacts with the slow-moving surface ridge, the MSLP gradient
and low- level WAA regime strengthen over our CWA. Overnight
lows tonight are expected to reach the upper 30`s to mid 40`s in
NW PA and the 40`s to 50F in northern OH during the predawn
hours of Tuesday morning before readings moderate slightly by
daybreak in response to increasing low-level WAA. Fair weather
is expected to persist as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the
ridge.

The potent shortwave trough approaches from the Upper Midwest on
Tuesday before moving E`ward through our region Tuesday night.
At the surface, the attendant trough overspreads our region
from the north and west, and the cold front is still forecast to
sweep generally E`ward through our CWA Tuesday night. Behind the
disturbance and front, a ridge at the surface and aloft builds
from the north-central United States and vicinity. A few peeks
on sunshine and low-level WAA ahead of the cold front should
allow Tuesday afternoon`s highs to reach the 50`s to lower 60`s
in northern OH and the lower to mid 60`s in NW PA. Low-level CAA
behind the front should contribute to overnight lows reaching
the lower to mid 40`s in northern OH and the upper 30`s to lower
40`s in NW PA around daybreak Wednesday.

Scattered and periodic rain showers are expected late Tuesday
morning through Tuesday night due to moist isentropic ascent
aloft, ahead of the front, and low-level convergence and
associated moist ascent along the front. The best potential for
widespread rain should translate generally E`ward through our
CWA Tuesday afternoon through the wee hours of Wednesday
morning. Thereafter, fair weather is expected essentially across
the western-half of our CWA by daybreak Wednesday as the
aforementioned ridge builds behind the shortwave trough and cold
front. However, behind the front, lake-enhanced rain showers
are expected generally east and then southeast of Lake Erie,
in/near the snowbelt, amidst weak lake-induced instability and
the following over/downwind of the lake: A sufficiently-cold/moist
low/mid-level atmospheric column and the seeder-feeder process.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front is expected to be moving across the region Wednesday
morning with any showers across NE OH into NW PA ending by mid
afternoon. High pressure then controls the region Wedneday night
through Thursday night. Clouds and winds should decrease enough
Wednesday night to allow for the formation of frost across most of
the CWA. Lows may dip below freezing by Thursday morning so a freeze
warning is a possibility. It will remain cold Thursday night as well
with frost possible from the Central Highlands to NW PA.

The coolest day of the short term will be Wednesday with clouds
gradually decreasing through the afternoon. Highs will range from
the upper 40`s to mid 50`s. Warmer Thursday with plenty of sunshine
and highs reaching into the 50`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure moves east of the region by Friday with a warm front
approaching the region from the southwest. Lift near/ahead of this
boundary will bring increased rain chances starting as early as late
Friday afternoon across NW OH. The greatest chances occur Friday
night with a chance of thunder also possible. The entire region
should be in the warm sector ahead of low pressure over the Plains
on Saturday into Sunday. The uncertatiny for now will be the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms each day. Models are indicating
the upper level ridge increasing slightly into Sunday which would at
least decrease the coverage of anything that can develop in the warm
sector. The better chances of thunderstorms may end up holding off
until Monday when the cold front moves west to east across the
region.

The entire region should see a return to warm temperatures through the
long term with highs in the 70`s to near 80 and lows in the 50`s to
mid 60`s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Conditions will generally be VFR through 18Z as clouds gradually
lower. Southwest winds will increase towards 12Z with gusts to
20-25 knots developing and will continue to increase through
about 16Z as mixing heights increase, tapping into a 40 knot low
level jet overhead. Gusts of 25-30 knots will be common until
rain begins and helps to stabilize the boundary layer. Rain will
spread west to east across the area beginning in Toledo around
17Z, CLE around 21Z, and CAK around 23Z. Ceilings will lower as
rain increases with most terminals on the fringe of MVFR or VFR.
Have included a period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities where
rain persists longer and seems more favorable but lacking some
confidence in visibilities as this will tend to be a light rain.
Thunderstorms are not expected. The more persistent rain will
end from west to east between 00-06Z but showers may linger at
eastern terminals into Wednesday morning. A cold front will move
south into the area between 06-12Z with a wind shift to the
northwest. This will also bring lower ceilings with most sites
down to IFR by 12Z Wed.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely through Wednesday with scattered
showers lingering across the snowbelt region. Non-VFR may
return in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure is expected to move east of the region tonight as low
pressure moves eastward across Ontario, reaching Quebec by Tuesday
night. A cold front is pulled eastward across the lake Wednesday
morning. Expect to see southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front
increase on Tuesday with speeds around 20 knots. Did not issue a
small craft advisory at this time. Will allow later shifts to take a
look at newer data and issue a short period small craft from sunrise
through early afternoon across the western third of the lake. We will
also need to monitor for a small craft advisory as northwest winds
increase in the wake of the cold front Wedneday morning into the
afternoon. The expectation is that the waves build to 4+ feet on
Wednesday. Generally tranquil marine conditions are expected to
return for Thursday and Friday as high pressure slides through.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...MM