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000
FXUS61 KCLE 202300
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
700 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will persist into Monday before a low
pressure system moves into the region on Tuesday. This low will move
a warm front north on Tuesday morning, followed by a cold front
Tuesday night. A trough will linger before high pressure builds in
on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Quite a bit of cloud cover remains across the Lower Great Lakes
this evening with guidance too optimistic on clearing. Think
at least some partial clearing will occur overnight, but
confidence remains low to pinpoint location and persistence of
the possible clearing. Will keep headlines as is as temperatures
should generally fall into the mid-30s tonight, with locally
lower spots possible.

Previous Discussion...
A cold front has moved east of the area, leaving much cooler
temperatures in its wake. Highs this afternoon have only climbed
into the mid to upper 40s, but with gusty northwest winds it feels
closer to the upper 30s to low 40s. These colder temperatures may
pose a risk to outdoor plants tonight as lows drop into the low to
mid 30s across the area, but various other conditions will likely
inhibit widespread frost or freezing conditions. Overall, the
current airmass is fairly dry with dewpoints lingering in the 20s,
but with a shortwave moving east across the area, there has been
cloudy skies today which is expected to persist into portion of
tonight. This may allow temperatures to remain a bit warmer
(although still in the low to mid 30s), but with it still being so
cold and winds expected to be calm to 5 knots, have opted to include
patchy frost in the forecast for all counties except along the
lakeshore. As a result of the frost potential, coupled with the cold
temperatures, have opted to issue a Frost Advisory for those
counties tonight into early Sunday morning. In addition, there is a
small chance that cold 850mb temperatures moving across a relatively
warm lake (for this time of year) may produce enough instability to
get isolated sprinkles out of it. Confidence is very low in any of
this reaching the surface so opted to not include it with this
update, but will continue to monitor the airmass in the coming hours.

On Sunday, high pressure will persist and temperatures will climb
into the upper 40s out east and the mid 50s for western counties.
The areas that will see the warmest temperatures should see some
peaks of sun as the aforementioned shortwave moves east. By Sunday
night, all these clouds should move out of the area, allowing for
enhanced radiational cooling and temperatures falling again into the
low to mid 30s. Although the high persists, moisture values are
expected to increase a bit with dewpoints climbing into the upper
20s to low 30s. All of this coupled with light and variable winds
will result in prime conditions for widespread frost development
Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather is expected on Monday through Monday night as a ridge
at the surface and aloft builds and eventually crests E`ward over
our region, and is accompanied by a stabilizing subsidence
inversion. Late afternoon highs are expected to reach the lower to
mid 50`s in NW PA and the mid 50`s to mid 60`s in northern OH. The
coolest readings are expected within several miles of Lake Erie
since sufficient daytime heating of surrounding land and a weak
synoptic MSLP gradient are forecast to allow a lake breeze
circulation to form and penetrate several miles inland during the
afternoon through early evening, especially from roughly Lorain
County to Erie County, PA. Overnight lows are expected to reach the
mid 30`s to upper 40`s during the wee hours of Tuesday morning and
be followed by moderating temperatures by daybreak as low-level WAA
strengthens on the backside of the surface ridge.

A potent shortwave trough approaches our CWA from the Upper Midwest
and Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday before advancing generally E`ward
across northern OH and NW PA Tuesday night. At the surface, the
attendant trough overspreads our region from the north and west, and
the cold front is forecast to sweep generally E`ward through our CWA
Tuesday night. Scattered and periodic rain showers are expected due
to moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of the front, and low-level
convergence/associated moist ascent along the front. These lifting
mechanisms should release enough elevated instability for the
development of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday night. Daytime highs
should reach mainly the lower to mid 60`s on Tuesday. Overnight lows
should reach the lower to mid 40`s around daybreak Wednesday due in
part to low-level CAA behind the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Primarily fair weather is expected on Wednesday through Thursday
night as a ridge at the surface and aloft builds into our region
from the Upper Midwest and the northern/central Great Plains,
eventually begins to crest generally E`ward over our region, and is
accompanied by a stabilizing subsidence inversion. However, isolated
rain showers along the upper-reaches of the aforementioned cold
front should exit NE OH and NW PA by the afternoon or early evening
hours of Wednesday. Daytime highs should reach the upper 40`s to
lower 50`s in NW PA and the upper 40`s to upper 50`s in northern OH
on Wednesday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the lower to mid
30`s around daybreak Thursday morning and frost is possible. On
Thursday, daytime highs should once again reach the upper 40`s to
lower 50`s in NW PA and mainly the 50`s to 60F in northern OH as
lingering low-level CAA behind the front eventually transitions to
low-level WAA on the backside of the surface ridge as the ridge
advances generally from west to east. Overnight lows should then
reach the 30`s during the wee hours of Friday morning before
strengthening low-level WAA allows readings to moderate toward the
40F mark or so by daybreak Friday morning.

The surface portion of the aforementioned ridge continues to exit
gradually E`ward on Friday through Saturday as the portion of the
ridge farther aloft crests over our region and then also begins to
exit gradually E`ward. Simultaneously, the next shortwave trough
approaches from the north-central and central United States, and
eventually the western Great Lakes, while the attendant surface
trough overspreads our CWA from the west. Moist isentropic ascent
aloft on the backside of the ridge and ahead of the shortwave trough
axis should generate scattered and periodic rain showers on Friday
through Saturday. The ascent may release enough elevated instability
to generate isolated thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday.
Daytime highs should reach mainly the 60`s on Friday and be followed
by overnight lows reaching mainly the mid 40`s to mid 50`s around
daybreak Saturday. Daytime highs are forecast to reach the mid 60`s
to lower 70`s in NW PA and mainly the lower to mid 70`s in northern
OH on Saturday as low-level WAA persists.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions will persist through this TAF period. Mid-level
clouds around 4-6kft persist across northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania this afternoon, which should lift and become high
clouds this evening. These clouds will likely linger through the
end of this TAF period, clearing our by Sunday evening. The
primary concern with this TAF period remains the gusty northwest
winds this afternoon into the early evening hours. Winds
sustained at 12-15 knots, gusting up to 25 knots will persist
for all terminals until near sunset when they will weaken to
become northwesterly at 3-7 knots overnight and for the first
part of Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers Tuesday. Non-VFR may
persist into early Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening
from Vermilion to Ripley. A trough lingers over Lake Erie before a
ridge builds from the north-central United States on Sunday through
Monday. Primarily W`erly to NW`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots ease
to 15 knots or less tonight before shifting to W`erly to SW`erly and
increasing again to around 10 to 20 knots on Sunday. Waves as large
as 3 to 6 feet subside to 3 feet or less by daybreak Sunday. On
Sunday, waves should rebuild to as large as 3 to 6 feet, especially
in open waters east of the Islands. The latest forecast indicates
another Small Craft Advisory is not needed in any of our
nearshore zones on Sunday, but forecast trends will be monitored.
Winds are then expected to ease to around 5 to 10 knots and
become variable in direction Sunday night into Monday as waves
subside gradually to 2 feet or less.

Winds become S`erly to SW`erly around 15 to 25 knots on Monday night
through Tuesday as the ridge departs generally E`ward and interacts
with a cold front approaching from the west. Waves build to as large
as 4 to 7 feet and will trend largest in open U.S. waters and
Ontario waters where fetch is maximized. Another Small Craft
Advisory will probably be needed. SW`erly winds veer to NW`erly
Tuesday night as the cold front sweeps E`ward across the lake and
waves are expected to be as large as 3 to 6 feet. NW`erly to NE`erly
winds are expected on Wednesday through Thursday as another ridge
builds from the Upper Midwest. These winds will ease gradually
to 5 to 15 knots. Waves are forecast to subside gradually to 3
feet or less by daybreak Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ003-006-008-
     013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ002-003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Kahn
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Jaszka