Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
203 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...FLOOD THREAT IS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FEBRUARY FOR THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO RIVER WATERSHEDS OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...

This is the fourth in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by the
National Weather Service every two weeks through early spring
describing the potential for flooding across central and northern
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The rivers in the region are
divided by those that drain north into Lake Erie, and those that
drain south into the Ohio River. These outlooks are based on current
and forecast hydrometeorological conditions, including snowpack and
projected rainfall, which can either favor an above, average, or
below normal flood risk over the coming two weeks. Flooding could
occur with water levels having minor impacts even with a below
normal outlook. This outlook is valid for the two-week period from
February 15th to February 29th.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

Aside from trace amounts in the higher elevations of northwest Pennsylvania,
no snow pack currently exists across the region.

...STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day
streamflow averages across the region were normal to above normal
across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Streamflow values were
generally in the 50th to 80th percentile over the past four weeks,
largely due to high flows throughout the last week of January from
widespread rainfall and snow melt. However, current streamflows are in the
below to near normal range, generally in the 20th to 35th percentile, due to
recent lack of precipitation. Soil moisture conditions were generally
below normal across the area, with values near or slightly above normal
for the snowbelt region of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...

No ice is present on area rivers and streams.

...WATER SUPPLY...

The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) reservoirs were near normal winter
pool elevations. Reservoir storage capacity is generally 90% to 100% at
the projects.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

For the 6 to 10 day (Feb 20 to 24) and 8 to 14 day (Feb 22 to 28)
outlook periods, above normal temperatures are favored for the region.
Chances are leaning towards near normal precipitation in the 6 to 10 day
period, while chances are leaning towards above normal precipitation in the
8 to 14 day period. The latest seasonal outlooks for March through May
favor above normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation
across the region.

...SUMMARY...

The threat for flooding over the next two weeks is below normal for
this time of year. It is important to remember that heavy rain can cause
flooding at any time. Extended hydrologic information will be included in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook when necessary at
forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=CLE.

Observed and 5 day forecast river information can be found on our
web page at www.weather.gov/cleveland. Ten day streamflow ensemble
forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs.

The fifth Winter/Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for Thursday,
February 29th.

$$

For the latest updates, please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/cleveland and follow us on social media

$$

Greenawalt


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