National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KCRP 181959
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
259 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms across the
Brush Country continues tonight

▶ High risk of rip currents continue tonight

▶ Heat Indices around 105 degrees over the western Brush Country
today

Not much change to the forecast other than slightly lower PoP`s but
still have a low chance (<20%) for convection out west. We still
have a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across the western
half of our CWA as a supportive environment continues, evidenced by
today`s 12Z sounding, into tonight but is expected to diminish
during the overnight hours. The HRW NSSL, ARW, and FV3 still hinting
at a MCS forming over MX west of the Brush Country tonight and
looks to clip our northwestern counties. Low confidence in this
scenario as none of the other CAM`s have this MCS. Any storms that
develop will be capable of large hail and damaging winds but the
threat is expected to diminish within a few hours after midnight
and isolated to scattered showers are generally expected tonight
through tomorrow morning. Meanwhile a cold front currently
situated near the TX Panhandle is expected to stall over the Hill
Country before it slides across our CWA this weekend but more on
that in the long term discussion.

Temperatures: Today will top out in the 80s to upper 90s with heat
indices will peak briefly around 105 degrees out in the Western
Brush Country.  Tomorrow will be a little cooler with heat indices
topping out around 100 degrees out west. Overnight lows will bottom
out in the low 70s tonight and tomorrow night.

Hazards: Strong to severe thunderstorms may result in damaging winds
and large hail of at least 1.0 inch.

Rip Current: The risk is high this afternoon due to increased swells
but is expected to slightly diminish so have a Moderate Risk for rip
currents through tomorrow.

Fog: Is expected to develop over the waters tonight and advect onto
land early tomorrow morning where visibilities can drop to 1 mile or
less at times. Have Patchy fog inland from the Victoria Crossroads
to the Southern Coastal Plains but is expected to dissipate by
late morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Key Message:

- There is a medium to high chance (40%-75%) of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday evening into early Sunday morning as a cold
front moves through South Texas.

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that a 500 hPa shortwave
trough will move eastward across the Southern Plains Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning. Cyclonic vorticity advection will
contribute to upper level support for ascent over a stationary front
that is forecast to extend across Central Texas Saturday morning.
Above normal PWAT (with ensemble IQRs ranging from 1.5"-1.9") along
and ahead of the front will result in a medium to high (40%-75%) of
showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening into early Sunday morning
as a reinforcing cold front pushes through South Texas.

All three ensemble guidance systems indicate a medium chance for
CAPE to exceed 1500 J/kg in conjunction with 0-6 km shear greater
than 35 knots ahead of the front. Should this environment develop,
it will be supportive of organized convective modes with shear
vectors aligned parallel to the orientation of the cold front
indicating a higher likelihood of linear modes. Therefore, there is
a very low chance (5% or less) for a severe thunderstorm Saturday
evening into Sunday morning.

Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast behind the front on
Monday. However, temperatures will quickly rebound during the middle
of the week as a 500 hPa ridge builds over the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Have MVFR out west with VFR conditions elsewhere. Expect VFR
conditions this afternoon to spread to all sites with some
southeast winds gusting to around 20 or so knots. Winds relax
overnight veering out of the east. Expect MVFR VSBY`s/CIG`s due
to fog and low stratus. Have included IFR ceilings although some
LIFR are possible especially for VCT/ALI but confidence is low.
Tomorrow VFR conditions return in the afternoon around the end of
this TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Patchy sea fog is expected to develop tonight over much of the
waters with a low to moderate chance of visibilities less than 1
nm. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to persist through
the end of the week with very low chances of precipitation ahead
of an approaching cold front. Weak to moderate flow could increase
slightly, resulting in Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions at
times over the next several days. A cold front is forecast to move
through the coastal waters early Sunday morning with northeast
winds increasing to 15-20 knots by Sunday afternoon. There is
currently a high chance that a Small Craft Advisory will be needed
for Sunday. Winds are forecast to fall below 15 knots Monday
morning as high pressure builds into the northwestern Gulf Of
Mexico. Onshore flow will return by the middle of next week as the
area of high pressure shifts eastward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  87  72  86 /  10  10   0  10
Victoria          70  85  70  84 /  10  10   0  30
Laredo            73  95  72  91 /  20  10  10  20
Alice             71  91  70  88 /  10  10   0  20
Rockport          73  83  72  83 /  10  10   0  10
Cotulla           73  88  71  88 /  20  10  20  40
Kingsville        72  90  71  86 /  10  10   0  20
Navy Corpus       74  82  73  82 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....TWH/91
AVIATION...BF