298
ACUS48 KWNS 010905
SWOD48
SPC AC 010903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0403 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
For Saturday/D4 to Sunday/D5, scattered to perhaps numerous
thunderstorms are possible over a large section of the CONUS from
the southern Plains into the Southeast. Mid 60s F to lower 70s F
dewpoints will be common across the entire area, aided by southerly
surface winds around an East Coast high. Aloft, generally weak flow
will exist over the same areas, well east of a developing western
upper trough. As such, the weak shear will likely minimize overall
severe potential through Sunday/D5.

For Monday/D6, models have shown increased run-to-run consistency in
depicting a deep upper trough developing over the Great Basin and
emerging into the Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place
ahead of this system, which is forecast to enter the central Plains
with a negative tilt and strong shear. While minor trough-geometry
differences exist amongst the models, the combination of
strengthening shear, a potentially deep surface low and ample
moisture and instability necessitate introducing severe
probabilities for parts of the Plains on Monday. All facets of
severe appear possible with such a system, including supercells,
squall lines, tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.

..Jewell.. 05/01/2024