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000
FXXX12 KWNP 131231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate (R1-Minor) levels. New Region 3637
(S10E74, Cao/beta) produced an impulsive M2.4/Sf at 13/0502 UTC.
Earlier, this region also produced numerous C-class flares. Immediately
to the south of Region 3637, new Region 3738 (S17E74, Hsx/alpha) was
also numbered. Region 3634 (N27W12, Eai/beta) produced a few C-class
flares during the period. Slight growth was observed in Regions 3633
(S08W16, Cso/beta) and 3634. The rest of the spotted regions were either
stable or in decay.

The faint, halo CME from a filament eruption near S16W20 at 12/0020 UTC
was analyzed with an arrival time late on 14 Apr.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 13-15 Apr.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at
normal to moderate levels through 15 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels. Solar wind speed slowly
decreased through the period from a high of near 445 to a low of near
380 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-5 nT while the Bz component varied
between +4 to -3 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.

.Forecast...
A weakly enhanced solar wind environment is expected on 13 Apr due to CH
HSS influences. Solar wind conditions are expected to become further
enhanced on 14 Apr, through midday 15 Apr, due to the anticipated
arrival of CMEs from 11 and 12 Apr in addition to continued CH HSS
influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 13 Apr due to CH HSS influences.
Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 14 Apr, followed by periods
of active conditions on 15 Apr, due to the arrival and passage of CMEs
from 11 and 12 Apr and CH HSS influences.