Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 130612
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad
swath of the southern Great Basin to the southern/central Plains
this afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will likely be
focused primarily across portions of the southern High Plains where
the overlap of receptive fuels and dry/windy conditions will be
greatest.

...Southern High Plains to northern KS...
05 UTC surface observations show somewhat poor overnight RH recover
with RH values remaining in the 15-30% range across eastern NM into
far western TX. Additionally, regional 00 UTC soundings sampled very
dry boundary-layer conditions across NM and western TX. This dry air
mass will spread to the east/northeast through the afternoon as
southwesterly winds increase in tandem with a deepening lee trough.
Widespread RH values in the low teens to low 20s will likely
coincide with 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25-30 mph). Elevated fire
weather conditions will likely be widespread across the southern
High Plains into western TX, OK, and KS. However, rainfall over the
past 72 hours across parts of TX and OK has limited fuel
receptiveness based on recent rainfall analyses and fuel reports.
Early spring green up is also more prevalent with eastern extent,
which will further limit fire potential. Therefore, the Elevated
risk area delineates where the best overlap of dry fine fuels and
dry/windy conditions should occur.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...
Southerly winds are expected to strengthen through the day in
response to the deepening lee trough. Very limited moisture return
until late in the day, coupled with strong diurnal warming, should
result in areas of 25-35% RH with 15-20 mph winds. Localized
elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of
IA, MN, and southwestern WI, but are expected to remain sufficiently
limited spatially and temporally to negate the need for additional
highlights.

..Moore.. 04/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$
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