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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120906
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Apr 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind
event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Winds at Salina Cruz on the southern end of the
isthmus are reaching near-gale. This is indicative of gale or
possible strong gale force winds over the adjacent Gulf of
Tehuantepec. An altimeter satellite pass from 04 UTC confirmed
combined seas of 13 ft in the plume of gale force winds, and
these seas likely have been building since that time and are
reaching a peak wave height around 17 ft. Ongoing high pressure
north of the area will continue to funnel these gales through Sat
morning, dropping to near gale or strong breeze late Sat, and
finally dissipating Sun night. Peak seas should drop below 12 ft
Sat afternoon and below 8 ft Sun afternoon. Marine interests
transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend
should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event and take the
necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the
affected waters.

Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for
more information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from Colombia near 06N77W to 05N90W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N90W to 07N115W to 03N135W to beyond 04N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 09N between
96W and 98W, and from 06N to 08N between 114W and 116W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale warning.

Outside of the Tehuantepec area, gentle to moderate winds persist
across the Mexican offshore waters. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft
off Baja California with a component of NW swell, 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere except 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. Areas of
smoke from agricultural fires were noted yesterday over the
coastal areas off Chiapas.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, developing
low pressure over the lower Colorado River valley will force
fresh to strong S winds over the northern Gulf of California late
today. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will be moving across
the waters west of Baja California Norte on Sat and Sun. In the
wake of the cold front, building high pressure should cause fresh
to strong NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula Sun
night into Tue.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Building high pressure north of the region is allowing fresh to
strong wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of
Nicaragua downwind to about 90W. Light and variable winds
prevail across the rest of the Central American and Equatorial
Pacific waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Hazy conditions observed
along and just offshore northern Central America are due to
mostly smoke produced by agricultural fires.

For the forecast, the large N-S pressure gradient setting up
over Central America will support fresh to strong NE to E winds
today, and near gale tomorrow night and Sat night over the Gulf
of Papagayo region. The forcing will diminish some on Sun into
Tue, but fresh to strong winds are expected to continue through
early next week. The same pressure gradient will cause fresh to
strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama tomorrow night into
Sun. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker for the
next several days. Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will propagate across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador tomorrow through Sat night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging dominates the waters north of 15N and west of
120W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds
mainly north of 10N and west of 125W. Combined seas are 6 to 9 ft
in this region, with a component of NW swell. Gentle to moderate
winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken over the next
couple of days allowing the trades to diminish even further into
Sat. A cold front will move eastward across the waters north of
25N into Baja California through Sun, before dissipating. Seas
should reach to 12 ft near the northern border of the discussion
area at 30N Sat, before slowly diminishing on Sun. A large NW to
N swell will then propagate equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching
as far south of 10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S to SW swell
will cross the equator heading northward. These interacting swell
will cause combined seas of up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of
115W. By late Sat, a long tail of fresh to strong NE to E winds
from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Gulf of Papagayo region will
reach as far west as 102W and as far south as 08N. Seas will
reach up to 10 ft.

$$
Christensen