849
FXUS65 KFGZ 080519
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1020 PM MST Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonable temperatures are forecast through the
remainder of the week along with typical springtime breezy winds.
A shift in the weather is expected over the weekend into next week
with a slight chance of rain showers for portions of northern
Arizona.

&&

.UPDATE...Winds are weakening and temperatures are falling this
evening; the Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning were allowed to
expire on time. Expect a cool and clear night across northern
Arizona with freezes in the high country. The current forecast is
on track and no updates are needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /420 PM MST/...Windy conditions persist this
afternoon with several locations seeing peak wind gusts between 35
and 50 mph. In addition to the winds, very dry conditions have lead
to critical fire weather conditions in portions of northeast Arizona.
Wind Advisories and Red Flag Warnings are in effect through 7 PM
MST this evening. Winds will begin to subside shortly after
sunset, becoming light for most areas after midnight. Outside of
the bothersome winds, the weather is mundane. Seasonal
temperatures and mostly sunny skies.

Models show an very elongated, positively tilted trough stretching
from the Central Plains through Arizona later this week. As the
original low pressure area pushes eastward, a cutoff low wants to
develop over the state, leading to cooler temperatures and unsettled
conditions. There is not a clear consensus among ensemble members
(GEFS or EPS) in regards to precipitation chances and amounts,
but at a minimum, expect increased cloud cover. As the cutoff low
hangs out over the southwest U.S., a ridge sets up our north,
created a Rex Block pattern. It is unclear how long this synoptic
pattern will persist. Breezy winds will reoccur each afternoon
with gusts between 15 and 25 mph. At this time, the best chances
for our area will initially be along the Utah border beginning
Friday afternoon (5-20%.) These rain chances will shift towards
the New Mexico border by Saturday, remaining slight (10-25%.) More
widespread activity will be possible Sunday into the start of
next week with the best chances (15-25%) likely along the Mogollon
Rim.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 08/06Z through Thursday 09/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds W-SW5-15g20kts through 08Z, then decreasing to
less than 10Kts overnight. Some NE sfc winds overnight to 10 kts SW
of higher terrain. Sfc winds W-SW10-20g25kts AFT 18Z Wednesday and
decreasing to less than 10kts AFT 02Z Thursday, NE drainage winds
redeveloping by 04Z Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/06Z through Saturday 11/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds VRB 5-15kts in the overnight and morning hours
each day, then W-SW10-20g25kts AFT 18Z each day. Areas just SW of
higher terrain may see NE drainage winds to 15kts each night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Much lighter afternoon
southwest winds 10 to 20 mph each day, light and variable winds in
the overnight and early morning hours. Continued dry, with daytime
temperatures running several degrees below normal.

Friday through Sunday...Daytime temperatures warming a few degrees
above normal by the weekend. Afternoon southwest winds from 10 to 20
mph each day, with gusts to 25 mph. Winds a bit more westerly by
Sunday. Overnight and early morning winds light and variable, with
some easterly drainage winds through mid-morning. Isolated, high-
based showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon, mainly in
the northern and eastern zones.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Benji/Mazon
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff