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000
FXUS64 KFWD 202027
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
327 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 115 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024/
/This afternoon through Sunday/

Waves of rain and storms have continued over North Texas today as
strong isentropic lift prevails behind the cold front and brings
elevated parcels to their level of free convection. Temperatures
have already reached their highs today, with near steady or
falling temps in the 50s are expected this afternoon. Now that the
cold front has pushed through the entire CWA, surface based
instability is shunted to our south, but an axis of modest
elevated instability/MUCAPE still exists south of I-20. This will
provide the fuel for another round of storms starting early this
afternoon over the western zones and progressing eastward into
the evening hours for the remainder of the region. This round of
convection is in response to forcing from an upper level
disturbance as it moves across. The evidence of this disturbance
is confirmed by the batch of storms currently organizing across
the Big Country. PoPs are near 100 percent for all of North Texas
this afternoon and/or this evening. Additional rainfall amounts
of 1-2 inches are expected with this activity. Isolated (10% of
the area) will have storm totals of 3-4 inches. While the rain
will be widespread, and occasionally heavy, we think the pace and
rain rates will be spaced out enough to avoid flash flooding
issues, thus no flood watch will be issued. Still minor flooding
of low-lying and flood prone locations is a concern. The severe
weather threat is non-zero, but is highest south of I-20, better
still in Central Texas, where hail up to quarter size is a threat.

Rain will end/clear the region from NW to SE this evening and
overnight. Clouds will be more stubborn, but eventually drier air
in the low levels will work to erode them Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures will be seasonably cool in the upper 40s and low
50s for lows tonight, while highs will only reach the low to mid
60s.

TR.92

-----

And now a personal note, this is my last forecast shift. I`ve
worked at this office just shy of 20 years as both a forecaster
and the Science and Operations Officer. I have enjoyed serving the
people of our region, hopefully bringing a little more
predictability to our chaotic atmosphere and teaching others some
meteorology along the way. I am moving on to a new opportunity
behind the front lines of operational forecasting at the regional
office where I will help advance the NWS in what will likely be a
period of unprecedented change brought about by artificial
intelligence being used for traditional weather forecasting
purposes. I`m in awe where numerical modeling is today compared to
the start of my career 25 years ago. Where we`ll be in 10 years
is probably going to be even more incredible. Before you get too
excited about having that perfect forecast of a rain shower down
to the minute, I want to use this AFD for my last "Ted talk" to
explain why we`re hitting a wall in the quest to create that
perfect accurate forecast, and why those lame jokes about
meteorologists getting paid to be wrong aren`t going to go away
anytime soon.

The atmosphere is a nonlinear system, meaning that our ability to
forecast it is extremely sensitive to knowing the exact
condition of every single breath of air. We crudely sample the
atmosphere directly with instruments that aren`t precise or
numerous enough, and make even more approximations with remote
sensing like satellites. And while computing power will no longer
become the bottleneck in forecast information (AI represents an
order of magnitude leap of cheap computing power for weather
prediction purposes!), the technology and ability to know the
initial state of the atmosphere will continue to hold forecast
accuracy back. So while we may never get the perfectly accurate
hyper-detailed computer model, we are now getting something very
valuable...the probabilities of different outcomes based on the
guesstimates of what the current state of the atmosphere may look
like. In other words, if weather prediction were a game of
Blackjack, we learned the rules of the game in the 20th century
(discovery of meteorology as a science), figured out the best ways
to play a hand to win during the last few decades (numerical
modeling), and now we are entering the phase where we`re able to
count cards and know our exact odds with every move (probabilistic
forecasting). Notice that even counting cards in a game of
Blackjack with a computer means we don`t know the outcome of every
single hand. There`s still the element of random chance at play
(or in the weather business we call that chaos theory). But over
many hands (or forecasts), we`ll be able to make better decisions
knowing those probabilities.

The role of the meteorologist of the future will become one that
communicates the probability outcomes that are important to the
people they serve. Some of the kinds of forecasts I think we`ll
have in 10 years are the chance of: a strong tornado hitting your
city in 6 hours, a nearby river flooding your house next week, a
record cold snap or heat wave in 2 weeks, and so on. Monitoring
and communicating these kind of probability predictions will help
prepare society to be ready for whatever Mother Nature throws at
us. Take note young weather enthusiasts...don`t get into this
field just because you think weather is interesting, make weather
a career if you`re passionate about helping people prepare for the
worst of it!

TR.92

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Night Onward/

Expect a pleasant end to the weekend as the region finds itself on
the back end of a departing upper trough. Ridging will begin to
build in by Sunday night, with the surface high sliding overtop the
region Monday morning. Light winds and generally clear skies will
allow for efficient radiational cooling to take place, promoting
even cooler temperatures to start the workweek. Expect Monday
morning lows in the 40s region-wide, making for a slightly chilly
commute. The presence of upper level ridging and the return of
southerly surface winds will promote a dry and warming forecast
through early week.

By Tuesday, a shortwave disturbance will round the periphery of
the ridge, sending a weak cold front south toward the Red River
Valley. The front looks to stall somewhere between the Red River
and north of I-20, but the exact location remains uncertain as
59% of total ensemble members shows the front a bit north of the
OUN/FWD CWA border and the rest a bit south. This uncertainty
correlates to the northward retreat of rain chances late Tuesday
into Wednesday in the most recent NBM guidance as compared to the
previous forecast. The exact location of the stalled boundary and
its attendant midweek rain chances will become clearer in the
coming days as more high-res guidance grabs hold of this time
period.

Meanwhile, an upper low will move onshore and advance towards the
Central Plains midweek. At the surface, warm air advection will
ramp up as highs return to the 70s and 80s by Wednesday.
Dewpoints in the 60s will be brought northward across the region
in response to the incoming low, with a sharpening dryline taking
residence to our west and setting the stage for our next shot at
hazardous spring storms over late week. While a bit too early to
split the hairs of exact locations of storms and threats, current
parameter space shows deep layer shear and lapse rates sufficient
enough for strong to severe storms beginning Thursday. The GEFS
is much more "excited" for this potential with higher
probabilities of of greater SBCAPE and bulk shear on Thursday
compared to the GEPS and EPS, which brings in an additional layer
of uncertainty to the forecast.

Current guidance shows the dryline feature to remain to our west
through the weekend. Additional upper level disturbances
will transit across the Central Plains, promoting periodic
showers and storms through next weekend. Regarding severe
potential for late week and weekend, all three ensembles are
currently showing a signal for higher SBCAPE and bulk wind shear
during this time. However, it is well too early to cry wolf on
severe storms until more guidance is able to view next weekend.
Nonetheless, it is April in Texas and the potential for severe
storms will need to be held in the back of the mind regarding
preparations for late this week and weekend. Flooding may also
become a concern as PWATs near and in excess of 1.5" will be
present throughout late next week and weekend. All in all, make
sure to keep an eye on the forecast and any more significant
details as they become available.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 115 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Waves of showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and track
across the Metroplex TAF sites. After this current batch moves
through the TAF sites through 18z, the amount of instability for
thunder will be somewhat limited, so expect showers to dominate
but have VCTS to cover the occasional lightning strike. However,
stronger upper level lift will arrive late this afternoon, likely
yielding another round of storms on station between 22z and 00z.
This wave will wind down with a widespread shield of rain and
occasional rumbles of thunder this evening -- with all convective
activity finally clearing the Metroplex from NW to SE around 3z.
In the meantime IFR to MVFR CIGs will prevail, and visibility
outside of precipitation should range around 5-7SM. IFR CIGs
should persist overnight, with gradual lifting to MVFR expected
Sunday morning as drier air moves in. N/NE winds at 10-15kt will
persist through the period.

For Waco, similar trends, expect the convective window will mainly
be between 0z and 5z.

TR.92

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  66  47  72  55 /  90   5   0   0   0
Waco                50  63  44  69  52 / 100   0   0   0   0
Paris               48  64  41  68  49 /  90   5   0   0   0
Denton              46  64  41  70  52 /  80   5   0   0   0
McKinney            49  64  43  70  53 /  90   5   0   0   0
Dallas              50  65  47  71  55 / 100   5   0   0   0
Terrell             49  63  42  69  51 / 100   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           50  65  45  71  53 / 100   5   0   0   0
Temple              49  63  44  70  52 / 100   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       46  65  42  72  52 /  80   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$