Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
000
FXUS64 KFWD 262101
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
401 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 122 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/
/Today and Tomorrow/

In contrast to the past few days, temperatures this morning were
as much as 5 to 15 degrees below seasonable values with near
freezing temperatures in a few spots across the northwest and wind
chill values bottoming out in the 20s primarily in North Texas.
Despite minimal reductions in solar insolation today, temperatures
will likely struggle to warm beyond the lower 60s in most areas,
as dry north-northwest winds occasionally gusting to 15 to 20 mph
sustain cold air advection in the wake of the recent front. With a
deep upper-level trough stretching from the Rockies to the
Appalachians and passing surface high pressure overhead, the cool
air mass in place will have little impetus to modify through much
of this period.

Area forecast soundings indicate an increase in mid and high
level cloud cover will occur early Wednesday as a weak shortwave
rounding the base of the parent trough reaches the Panhandle.
Though surface winds will become light and veer from the northwest
to east-northeast overnight, radiational cooling will likely be
tempered by this veil of clouds. For this reason, the forecast
minimum temperatures have been raised slightly above the
deterministic NBM, particularly in areas near and south of the
I-20 corridor. Morning low temperatures will range from the upper
30s in the vicinity of the Red River Valley to the low 40s across
much of Central Texas.

The embedded shortwave trough will also introduce the question of
convection potential Wednesday afternoon, even though low-level
moisture is expected to remain rather limited. The primary
mitigating factors to consider include the increasing subsidence
on the western flank of the parent trough and the previously
mentioned lack of boundary-layer moisture. However,
destabilization may still occur amid increasing deep-layer ascent,
daytime heating, and modest remnant/returning moisture in the
lower levels beneath cooler temperatures aloft. By Wednesday
afternoon, isolated to widely scattered (high-based) showers and
thunderstorms may develop as a weak surface trough slowly shifts
east. If thunderstorms do develop, the environment may support
isolated strong to marginally severe storms. With a well-mixed
boundary layer to around 850 mb and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear,
these storms will primarily carry a large hail and damaging wind
gust threat.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Any ongoing showers and storms mentioned in the short term
discussion will come to an end Wednesday night, with rain-free
conditions expected Thursday through the weekend. Broad upper-
level ridging will expand across the Central U.S. and bring
warming temperatures into the weekend. Thursday`s highs will still
be mild however, reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s as southerly
flow gradually returns to the area. Widespread readings in the
70s Friday will then shift to the 80s Saturday through Monday as
ridging remains overhead. Other than the warming trend, a tightened
surface pressure gradient Friday will result in breezy conditions.

An upper level low will drop southward along the West Coast late in
the weekend and enter the Desert Southwest early next week. This
will bring the region`s next chance for showers and storms late
Monday as a cold front moves through.

Looking Ahead to the Eclipse: The April 8th Total Solar Eclipse
is within range of extended forecast guidance as we`re now less
than two weeks out. It`s important to note that this is still
outside of the range of our official public forecast, and using
this guidance to pin down a cloud cover forecast for one specific
hour this far out is not useful as model guidance just isn`t that
skillful. Keep in mind ensembles are also under dispersed, so
these probabilities aren`t the same as actual Vegas odds as they
aren`t calibrated. HOWEVER, we can glean some sort of information
from looking at ensemble guidance:

-- 40-60% of the GEFS/GEPS members depict less than 25 percent
  cloud cover (e.g., sunny to mostly sunny skies) at the time of
  the eclipse across North & Central Texas. However, ~20% of the
  members also show greater than 80% mean cloud cover at this same
  time.

-- April in Texas is no stranger to weather systems. The key
  will be watching to see if the systems are timed well enough to
  allow for good viewing conditions on April 8th. Currently, most
  members show a system will be exiting to the east with 20-40% of
  all ensemble members (CMC/GEPS/GEFS) showing precipitation
  around eclipse time across the region.

Bottom Line: While most members favor good viewing conditions at
this point, the timing of the systems will likely be the main
thing to watch as we approach the eclipse, and there are still
many unknowns this far out.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 122 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the current TAF
period. Occasionally gusty northwest winds will diminish to around
5 KT by 01Z. Overnight, winds will veer to the northeast and then
east as the surface high builds eastward, though sustained wind
speeds should remain light through daybreak. FEW to SCT mid to
high clouds (though still VFR) will also begin to spread across
the D10 overnight/early Wednesday morning (most likely after 06Z)
in response to an approaching weak upper level disturbance.

The main aviation concern will be the potential for isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.
These storms may impact area terminals, however probabilities are
too low to introduce any mention of thunder with this issuance.
Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and gusty winds may
also accompany these storms. Winds will become more southerly by
or around 14Z with speeds increasing to around 8 to 12 KTS and
occasional higher gusts possible.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    43  66  45  71  54 /   5  20  20   0   0
Waco                43  69  43  71  53 /   0  20  20   0   0
Paris               37  59  39  68  49 /   0  10   5   0   0
Denton              37  63  39  70  52 /   5  30  10   0   0
McKinney            38  62  41  69  52 /   0  20  10   0   0
Dallas              44  65  44  71  54 /   5  20  20   0   0
Terrell             40  64  42  70  52 /   0  20  20   0   0
Corsicana           44  67  46  72  55 /   5  10  20   0   0
Temple              43  70  43  74  53 /   5  30  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       39  68  41  73  52 /   5  30  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.