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000
FNUS75 KGJT 151046
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Brush Creek RX...Eagle Valley Wildland
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
446 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A late season winter storm will move over the
project area today bringing cooler temperatures and an increasing
chance for showers in the afternoon. However, potential for
wetting rain is low today, but increases tonight. Winds will
shift through the day as the storm`s center moves overhead,
beginning out of the south and transitioning to the west in the
afternoon. Dry and warmer conditions expected Tuesday afternoon
with less wind.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered showers
                    early in the afternoon becoming likely late.
                    A slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent.
Max temperature.....50-55.
Min humidity........20-25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph this morning becoming
                    west and increasing to 13 to 18 mph in the a
                    afternoon with occasional gusts to 30 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Becoming fair by 1000, and improving to
                    excellent during the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Mixing height.......9400 ft AGL at peak heating.
Transport winds.....Southwest 21 mph.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Snow showers likely
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
CWR.................30 percent.
Min temperature.....31-36.
Max humidity........80-85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 15 to 20 mph with occasional
                    gusts to 30 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Decreasing to poor (12000 knot-ft)
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................2 until 2100, then 1.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 800 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....West 20 mph.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Mixed rain and snow
                    showers likely in the morning.
CWR.................20 percent.
Max temperature.....49-54.
Min humidity........37-42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Becoming fair by 1000 then increasing to very
                    good in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 5900 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 20 mph.

$$

Forecaster...Norv Larson
Requested by...Hugh Fairfield-Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410636.1/GJT
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL hfairfield-smith@eagleriverfire.org