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000
FNUS75 KGJT 191218
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Brush Creek RX...Eagle Valley Wildland
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
618 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1700 MDT on April 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Winds will die down a bit today as the system to the
north finally moves east of the area. Gusty afternoon winds up to
25 mph remain possible. Chance of wetting rain remains low at the
fire location, however passing showers or thunderstorms could produce
gusty winds in excess of 30 mph. Otherwise, warm, dry, and breezy
conditions will allow for deep mixing and good smoke dispersal.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....55-60.
Min humidity........28-33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................3.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 17 mph.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    through the night. Chance of snow showers
                    after 0300.
CWR.................20 percent.
Min temperature.....34-39.
Max humidity........80-85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10-14 mph becoming southeast winds
4-8 mph after 2000. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair decreasing to poor (2000-7000 knot-ft)
                    by 2000.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................3 until 2100, then 2.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL overnight
by 2000.
Transport winds.....Northeast 13 mph shifting to the southeast 5
                    mph overnight.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers until 0900. Chance of rain showers
                    through the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 1200.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....54-59.
Min humidity........29-34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 4-8 mph becoming southwest after
0800. Becoming west winds 12-16 mph after 1200,
shifting to northwest after 1500. Gusts up to 25
mph possible in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3000-32000 knot-ft) increasing to fair by
1200, to good by 1300, and to very good by 1500.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1 until 0900, then 2 until 1200, then 3.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL increasing to 6800 ft AGL by 1500.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 mph increasing to west 20 mph in
                    the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Brianna Bealo
Requested by...Hugh Fairfield-smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410636.8/GJT
.DELDT 04/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL hfairfield-smith@eagleriverfire.org