Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 261053
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
453 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below 0F wind chills expected this morning.

- Warming trend begins tomorrow and continues through the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 134 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The low pressure system that was responsible for this winter
storm has moved off to the east and out of our area. The last of the
lingering flurries will cease by sunrise. A ridge is starting to
build into the region from the west and is causing surface winds to
slow. Despite this, winds will remain above 10 kts into the mid-
morning and air temperatures will drop into the lower to mid teens.
Wind chills will drop to below 0F for majority of the Tri-State
area. Once the sun rises, temperatures will quickly increase and by
15Z, we will be above 0F wind chills.

The ridge will help to clear up the sky a bit today, which will
allow temperatures to warm into the upper 40s in the southwestern
CWA (locations that received less snow) to the lower 30s in the
northeastern CWA (where greater snowpack is).

The ridge will move off to the east this afternoon and a shortwave
will meander in from the northwest. This will form some clouds and
give about a 20% chance of showers in the far western CWA late this
afternoon into the early evening. A mix of rain and snow can be
expected with any showers that form. There is very low confidence
(<10%) that additional accumulation will occur with these showers.
There is a bit of a surface dry layer for these showers to overcome
which will absorb most of the moisture before it reaches the ground.

Overnight tonight, as this feature continues to move east, a few
flurries or sprinkles might be felt across the CWA, but confidence
in that occurring is less than 15%. Low temperatures tonight will
cool into the mid 20s in the west with mid teens expected in the
east. Remaining snowpack and cloud cover will be the big players in
just how cold the area gets tonight.

Starting Wednesday, we will get some more southwesterly flow which
will work to clear out the skies. High temperatures on Wednesday
will warm into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Overnight lows will drop into
the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Upper ridge will start to build across the area on Wednesday.
The ridge axis will move through on Thursday. Southwest flow
will follow through the weekend. The next system will be moving
out of the Four Corners early next week bringing the next chance
for precipitation and cooler temperatures.

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected
Thursday through Saturday under the influence of the ridge and
southwest flow. Afternoon relative humidity minimums will fall
into the teens each afternoon west of Highway 25. However, wind
speeds will be marginal at best for critical fire weather
concerns.

Models bring in first mention of precipitation chances Sunday
night as the western trough approaches the Rockies. However,
better chances will be on Monday as the main trough dynamics
move through. GFS a bit wetter and colder compared to the ECMWF
at this time. Neither models showing much in the way of QPF or
snow, with the system skirting the area to the north. However,
any change in the track further south would bring better
chances. Since this is still 7 days out, confidence in any
particular solution remains low. This system does not have much
in the way of cold air, with highs on Monday in the 50s and 60s
and lows Monday night in the 20s, casting further doubt on snow
potential. Finally, GFS shows some wind with the accompanying
cold front on Monday, maybe brief gusts up to 40 mph, but the
ECMWF shows very little wind at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 446 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the
TAF period. Winds from the north-northwest will gradually slow
this morning and then become variable this afternoon. KMCK will
continue to see light and variable winds for the rest of the
period, but KGLD will see southeasterly winds becoming
southwesterly and increase in strength around 3Z. There is a
slight chance (about 20%) that light fog may form between 6-12Z
Wednesday near KMCK, but flight category reduction is not
currently expected.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA


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