Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
053 FXUS66 KHNX 262108 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 208 PM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A High Wind Warning has been issued for the Kern County Mountains and Mojave Desert Slopes valid through 11 PM this evening. 2. A storm system will impact Central California today with mountain snow, foothills rain, and a chance of valley thunderstorms. 3. Maximum temperatures today are expected to be six to ten degrees below seasonal averages. 4. A warming trend begins on Sunday and will last through the week ahead with dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... An upper level trough is passing over the area, in addition to a low pressure system embedded underneath, which will lead to strong winds in the Kern County Mountain and Desert area through this evening, as well as the possibility (15-25%) for a few thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada, the foothills and most of the San Joaquin Valley. This potential will last until this evening as the sun sets, though this may be reduced due to cloud cover over the area, inhibiting convection. As with all thunderstorms, expect strong wind, possibly some small hail, and localized heavy rain. Here is the potential for thunder at various sites across the area for this afternoon: Yosemite Valley: 28%Shaver Lake: 28% Mariposa: 27%Lodgepole: 25% Visalia: 23% Fresno: 22% Merced: 20%Hanford:19% Delano: 16% Bakersfield: 14% After the trough exits our area tomorrow morning, a more zonal flow pattern will take over, leading to a warming trend that will take high temperatures just slightly above normal through Thursday. Long range ensemble models show ridge-building beginning next Friday, which will increase temperatures above normal for this time of year, with the probability for highs of 80 degrees on May 3rd at 50-60% and the chances for highs of 90 degrees at 15-25%. && .AVIATION... The Sierra Nevada and Kern County Mountains may have localized mountain MVFR obscurations. The Kern County and Mojave Desert have a high probability of sustained surface winds above 30 KTS through the TAF period. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail throughout Central California for at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 04/25/2024 14:13 EXPIRES: 04/26/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ338. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ331-333-334- 337-339. && $$ Public/Aviation/Fire Weather.......EW DSS/PIO............................AS weather.gov/hanford