116
FXUS63 KICT 290547
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1247 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm threat over eastern
  Kansas through this evening.

- Ongoing flooding concerns over southeast Kansas.

- A few more rounds of thunderstorms and potential severe
  weather Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible through this
evening over eastern Kansas, along/ahead of an approaching weak
Pacific cool front, and associated upper forcing approaching from
the southwest. Frontal convergence and upper forcing isn`t terribly
strong, and instability is on the lower side, which should tend to
keep storms isolated to widely scattered at best. Modest effective
deep layer shear of only 30-40 kts along with the modest at best
instability should keep thunderstorm magnitude in check through the
evening, although can`t rule out a strong to marginally severe
storms capable of wind/hail. Greater thunderstorm coverage is
expected just east/southeast of the forecast area late this
afternoon through the evening.

Various areal flooding warnings and river flood warnings remain in
effect over southeast Kansas, stemming from excessive runoff from
yesterday/last night`s thunderstorms. Even though the threat for
additional widespread heavy rainfall has ended, any additional
pockets of rainfall could aggravate ongoing flooding concerns. So
will keep the southeast KS flood watch in effect until about 7 PM
this evening.

An active weather pattern thunderstorm-wise returns off-and-on from
Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening, as a wobbly frontal zone
and a pair of shortwaves traverses Mid-America. The shear and
buoyancy combination favors severe weather potential, along with
pockets of heavy rainfall and flooding. Buoyancy/instability looks
potentially quite strong all three days given rich low-level
moisture amidst steep mid-level lapse rates, which should compensate
for the more modest deep layer shear values. Large hail and damaging
winds look to be the primary threats, although a few tornadoes are
possible, especially during the evening hours when low-level shear
strengthens amidst strengthening low-level jet. Stay tuned, as we
continue to refine the forecast the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid
period. Isolated showers along a surface cold front will clear
far southeast Kansas by around 08z. Some stratus/fog in vicinity
of the frontal boundary should stay south of the KCNU terminal,
though added tempo MVFR for a time before dawn. Otherwise
generally a clear sky, less some cirrus, through Monday evening.
Light winds on Monday in vicinity of a weak surface ridge with
southerly flow developing in the afternoon/evening with its
passage.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...KED