Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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575 FXUS63 KICT 011135 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 635 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers/storms expected this morning - Confidence growing for severe storms west of I-135 & south of I-70 - The active weather pattern continues into next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 As of 3 AM Wednesday morning, predominately zonal midlevel flow has resumed across the Plains with the remnant shortwave trough advancing into western Great Lakes region. Further west, the next shortwave trough was approaching the central Rockies. Closer to home, an outflow boundary from the cluster of thunderstorms that pushed through much of south central and southeast KS Tuesday evening has stalled across northern OK. Strong WAA between 850 and 700 mb was advancing northward through western OK and the Panhandle. This WAA continues to generate convection on the western flank of the outflow boundary. Looking at VWP trends from ICT depict the low-level flow is beginning to veer to the south. This should expand the zone of low-level WAA into portions of central and south central KS later this morning. As such, widely scattered showers and storms can be expected through mid to late morning. As this axis moves northward, the convection across northern OK should gradually dissipate. The rate of dissipation will play a pivotal role in the easterly extent of severe thunderstorm potential. Latest short range deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest the northern OK convection will dissipate shortly after sunrise. This will allow the near-surface moisture to retreat northward with the warm front. Showers and storms are likely to continue for much of the morning and afternoon to the north of the warm front. This activity should act to reinforce the thermal gradient along its axis. By 4 PM, the warm front is progged to be positioned near/just south of I-70. The triple point will reside near/just southwest of Great Bend with a dryline extending southward towards Pratt. Occasional breaks in the cloud cover should allow for sufficient surface heating to erode inhibition along the dryline. While overall large scale forcing for ascent will remain meager through the afternoon/evening, convergence along the dryline should promote convective initiation along this zone from Great Bend to Pratt and southward from there. Hodographs remain favorable for supercell structures with good veering and sufficient speed shear. Instability will be quite plentiful (3000- 4000 J/kg) with steep midlevel lapse rates near 9C overlapping a moist boundary layer (meanW approaching 14 g/kg). As such, any supercell structure will be capable of very large hail up to baseball size and damaging winds up to 70 mph. The greatest risk for a tornado appears to emerge from the triple point near Great Bend and northeastward along the warm front. Surface winds along the warm front will remain more-back, contributing to effective SRH values of 200-300 M2/S2. Any storm that develops in this zone should have a prolonged residence time with RM supercell motion largely parallel to the warm front. As the shortwave trough across the Rockies approaches the Plains tonight, the surface low will advance northeastward, taking the bulk of precipitation northward as well. The main surface trough axis will slide through the forecast area through the day Thursday. More shower and thunderstorm activity is expected along/ahead of the front. While a severe storm cannot be ruled out, an overall lack of deep layer shear (25-30 kt) should mitigate that threat. The active weather pattern looks to continue into the weekend with a series of shortwave trough axis` ejecting into the Plains. Taking a peek into next week, shear and instability may overlap Monday for the next chance for severe storms. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Elevated southerly return flow/warm advection this morning with promote scattered showers/storms as the warm front begins to lift northward toward central Kansas. Areas of MVFR stratus cigs with localized IFR possible. Focus for convection should shift northward with the warm front into central Kansas during the afternoon with some development south into the warm sector across south central Kansas, some of which will be severe. Additional showers and storms are expected ahead of the cold front which will move into central Kansas late tonight. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMB AVIATION...KED