712
FXUS62 KILM 111317
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
917 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes offshore today, bringing much cooler and
drier air for the weekend and start of next week. Rain chances
increase next Tuesday as a warm front lifts north across the
area.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to build in across the area through
tonight. A weak boundary will move across later tonight with
little to no impact on conditions. Guidance is in general
agreement on highs today in the middle 70s. Sunday morning lows
are expected to be in the middle 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rather uneventful first couple days to the calendar week as weak
sfc high pressure shifts off the SE coast and an upr-level
trough pushes farther offshore. Temps stay near climatological
norms, with highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s both days and lows
Sunday night in the mid/upr 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Previous thinking remains on track for this period, as an upr-
level trough approaches from the west early to mid week and
isentropic lift with a passing warm front leads to categorical
PoPs on Tuesday. The rain may be moderate to heavy at times as
favorable forcing passes directly over the area. The clouds and
rain will keep temps a bit lower Tuesday than previous
days...highs only in the mid/up 70s. Moderate rain chances then
for Wednesday as the mid-level trough axis crosses the area,
followed by a drier Thursday as a mid-level ridge moves in. This
looks to be temporary however, with more shortwave energy aloft
moving in late week so rain chances return by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions through the forecast period.

Extended Outlook...Widespread VFR through Monday. Flight
restrictions may occur Monday night into Tuesday with the next
weather system moving in. Improving conditions into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Winds will be from the north northeast across
the waters today initially around 15 knots falling into a range
of 10-15 later. A southwest flow develops later tonight ahead
of a dry frontal passage. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet
early falling to around two feet in time.

Sunday through Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions for Sunday and
Monday as weak sfc high pressure shifts offshore. Wind
directions variable through Monday, with speeds up to 10-15 kt
and significant seas only 1-2 ft. Marine conditions then start
to deteriorate Tuesday as a warm front lifts north through the
area ahead of the next low pressure system, with southerly flow
increasing to ~20 kt and seas up to 5-6 ft. SCA conditions are
possible and may continue until early Wednesday before the low
pushes offshore later in the day.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...MAS/SHK