Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
147
FNUS72 KILM 201142
FWSILM
Spot Forecast for Orton Creek Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
742 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will prevail early this week bringing drier air to
the region. Warmer temperatures will return mid week with wetter
weather expected late week.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is Moderate.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 10 mph.
Max mixing hgt......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 18 to 21 mph.
Max vent rate.......Good (65792 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............80.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........36 38 39 40 42 43 45 40 35 30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............62 66 69 72 74 76 77 77 76 75
RH..............86 76 69 62 59 57 56 56 59 62
20 FT wind dir..N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT wind spd..8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8
20 FT wind gust.13 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.0 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 2.9 2.5
Transp wind dir.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E
Transp wind spd.20 21 20 18 20 18 18 20 18 18
Stability.......B B C C C C C B B B
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............47 54 59 58 66 64 63 80 66 58
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.36 42 52 53 64 63 61 66 53 46
Ventrate Cat....PR FR FR FR GD GD GD GD FR FR
Sfc pres (in)...996 996 996 997 997 997 996 996 996 995
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
becoming light.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 10 to 18 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (4619 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........9.
Min ADI.............5.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........27 24 21 26 30 34 39 44 49 48 48 47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............74 72 69 68 66 65 64 64 63 62 61 60
RH..............64 69 75 79 83 85 88 89 92 94 97 100
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE N N
20 FT wind spd..7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT wind gust.13 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E NE NE NE NE NE
Transp wind spd.18 16 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 12 10 10
Stability.......B E F F F F F F F F F F
LVORI...........1 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 9 9
ADI.............45 11 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5
Haines index....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.35 12 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...995 995 998 998 998 999 999 999 999 999 999 000
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 6 mph in
the late morning and early afternoon, then
shifting to the east 6 to 7 mph late in the
afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 13 mph shifting to the east late
in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (36242 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........9.
Max ADI.............45.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........47 45 29 16 7 6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............59 63 70 76 78 77
RH..............100 91 71 61 58 60
20 ft wind......N 3 N 4 NE 5 NE 6 E 7 E 7
20 ft wind gust.6 7 9 10 11 11
Mix hgt (ft)....400 1200 2100 2900 2800 2100
Transport wind..NE 9 NE 12 NE 13 NE 13 E 13 E 14
Stability.......F A A B B B
LVORI...........9 4 3 1 1 1
ADI.............4 18 34 45 45 35
Haines index....3 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.4 14 27 36 36 28
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
Sfc pres (in)...30.00 30.03 30.03 30.04 30.03 30.03
$$
Forecaster...Morgan
Requested by...Zach West
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414711.0/ILM
.DELDT 05/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL zwest@tnc.org