Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
000
FXUS61 KILN 181746
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
146 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will bring scattered to
numerous snow showers and an unseasonable cold airmass to the
Ohio Valley today. A fast-moving but dry frontal system will
reinforce the chilly conditions through mid-week. The next
chance for precipitation will arrive with a weak disturbance
moving through the Great Lakes on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Already seeing some light snow showers across the area this
morning and expect these to increase in coverage through the
afternoon as low level lapse rates increase. This will be
enhanced by a fetch off of Lake Michigan. We will remain cold
today with highs only in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Some
visibility restrictions and brief light accumulations on grassy
surfaces will be possible with some of the heavier snow
showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The snow showers will weaken and decrease in coverage quickly
after sunset this evening, leading to a cold and dry night.
Temperatures will drop into the mid-20s by morning.
Flow will shift to the west/southwest on Tuesday ahead of
a progressive shortwave diving into the Upper Midwest.
Efficient mixing will lead to gusty winds in the afternoon with
highs reaching into the lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level northwest flow aloft will amplify some across the Great
Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday as embedded energy/upper level
jet dig southeast. This will push a cold front through our area.
This front is expected to pass through dry with mainly just some
clouds Tuesday night. In the CAA pattern behind the front, it will
be breezy once again with wind gusts between 25 mph and 35 mph.
Temperatures will vary given the CAA occurring during the day. Highs
will range from the lower 40s northwest to the mid/upper 50s far
south and southeast.
For Wednesday night into Thursday, the mid level trough axis is
forecast to shift into southeast Canada/New England. This will allow
surface high pressure to settle across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. This will provide a period of dry weather, decreasing wind,
and mostly clear skies. It will be colder, however. After lows in
the lower to mid 20s, highs on Thursday will range from the upper
30s north to the upper 40s south. These readings may still be on the
high side, so depending on the strength of the CAA, we may have to
decrease these readings in future forecasts.
The mid level flow begins to relax and becoming zonal Thursday night
into Friday. This will allow for a couple of embedded disturbances
to pass through the region. A chance of rain or snow late Thursday
night will transition to a chance of rain on Friday. After lows in
the upper 20s to lower 30s, highs will warm into the upper 40s north
to the mid/upper 50s south.
We will dry out for the most part over the upcoming weekend as mid
level flow begins to buckle, allowing for ridging to build northward
into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will eventually modify/warm into
the second half of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread snow showers will persist through this afternoon
with some local MVFR to IFR conditions possible in the more
significant showers. This activity will taper off as we head
into this evening with skies becoming mostly clear overnight.
VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the TAF
period. Winds will become southwest through Tuesday morning and
increase through the day. Wind gusts in the 30 to 35 knot range
will be possible heading into Tuesday afternoon.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...JGL