Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 281253
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
853 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Large area of rain over eastern/southern counties in our forecast
area will shift eastward offshore during the nest 2-3 hours, with
gradual clearing from west to east across forecast area. Current
forecast high temperatures look good based on expected midday/
early afternoon clearing. Made some adjustments to hourly POP/
weather grids, with no other changes planned in update.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Early morning surface analysis depicts a cold front bisecting our
area and moving slowly eastward, with a wave of low pressure (1010
millibars) developing along this boundary near the Carolina coast.
Meanwhile, high pressure (1024 millibars) was building over the
Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys in the wake of this front.
Aloft...strong southwesterly flow prevails across our region,
which was downstream of a potent shortwave trough that was
migrating through the southern branch of the jet stream that was
moving eastward across the Ozarks and the lower Mississippi
Valley. While deep southwesterly flow continues to transport a
narrow plume of tropical moisture along the slow moving cold
front, instability remains almost non-existent, which was yielding
scattered, fast moving downpours and only a few elevated
thunderstorms across our area early this morning. Dry conditions
were in place for locations south and east of a line from
Gainesville to St. Augustine, while rainfall was exiting locations
along the Alapaha/Ocmulgee/upper Altamaha Rivers in southeast GA,
where the cold front has recently moved through. Temperatures and
dewpoints in the wake of the front were cooling to the upper 50s
across inland southeast GA, while 60s prevail elsewhere as of 08Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Fast-moving downpours and possibly a few embedded, elevated
thunderstorms will progress across the I-95 corridor this morning,
with conditions drying out in the wake of the cold front across
inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley. Activity will move
offshore of the St. Johns and Flagler County coasts before the
noon hour, but cloud cover may linger through the afternoon hours
as a potent shortwave trough progresses eastward across the Deep
South this afternoon. Lapse rates will steepen as this feature
moves overhead, and a few showers cannot be ruled out beneath
this feature during the mid to late afternoon hours. Otherwise,
our local pressure gradient will tighten this morning as a wave of
low pressure strengthens along the departing cold front off the
Carolina coast and high pressure builds over the lower Mississippi
Valley in the wake of the cold frontal passage. Northwesterly
winds will become breezy late this morning and will continue
through this afternoon. Cool air advection and plenty of cloud
cover will keep highs around 70 across southeast GA, while breaks
in the cloudiness this afternoon allow highs to rise to the mid
70s for northeast FL and the upper 70s for north central FL.

Skies will clear from northwest to southeast this evening as high
pressure builds into the southeastern states. Northwesterly winds
will diminish early this evening and will shift to northerly
overnight. Lows will fall to the 40s at all inland locations,
ranging to around 50 at coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

High pressure will be in place over the region resulting in dry
weather and mostly clear skies through the end of the week and
into the weekend. Temperatures will experience an uptick in values
between Friday and Saturday with daily high temps rising from the
lower to mid 70s up into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight
low temperatures will similarly rise from out of the mid 40s up
into the lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Dry weather will persist through the weekend and into next week
with the influence of high pressure over the region becoming
more diminished by midweek with models showing convection
developing over the forecast area by Wednesday, ahead of an
advancing cold front from out of the west. Above average
temperatures are anticipated for the end of the weekend and into
the beginning of next week with temps potentially dipping to be
closer to the seasonal average by midweek.|

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Showers continue across TAF sites early this morning. Latest
guidance has this, with associated MVFR/IFR CIGs, continuing
through about 15z, with gradual clearing thereafter. Surface
winds will become northwesterly during the morning, and
occasionally gust 20-25 kts late morning thru afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A cold front will cross our local waters this morning, accompanied
by showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. A wave of low
pressure will develop along this front this morning along the
Carolina coast and will gradually strengthen as it accelerates
northeastward, while high pressure builds into the lower
Mississippi Valley in the wake of this departing storm system.
Northwesterly winds will surge to Small Craft Advisory levels of
20-25 knots by late this morning offshore, while Caution level
speeds of 15-20 knots prevail near shore. Winds will occasionally
gusts to Gale Force offshore through this evening. Small Craft
Advisory conditions will continue tonight offshore as winds shift
to northerly. Seas of 6-8 feet will prevail offshore through
tonight, with Caution level seas of 4-6 feet forecast near shore
through tonight.

High pressure will then build into our region on Friday and will
settle directly over our local waters by Friday evening, allowing
for winds and seas to diminish. Caution level seas will linger
offshore on Friday and Friday night, while seas near shore fall
back to the 3-5 foot range from Friday through Saturday. High
pressure will then shift southeastward towards the Bahamas by
Saturday night, creating a prevailing south-southwesterly flow
that will continue through the early portions of next week. Seas
will subside to the 2-3 foot range throughout our local waters
early next week.

Rip Currents: A long period east-northeasterly swell will linger
today and will combine with elevated surf heights to keep a high
risk of rip currents in place at the northeast FL beaches.
Somewhat lower surf heights will result in a high end moderate
risk at the southeast GA beaches. A persistent northeasterly ocean
swell will likely keep a solid moderate risk in place from Friday
through the weekend at all area beaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Water levels along lower portions of the Satilla River near the
Atkinson gauge have risen above flood stage, and minor flooding is
expected to continue during the next several days. Minor flooding
is otherwise expected to continue during the next several days
along upper portions of the Altamaha River near the Baxley gauge,
while water levels potentially approach flood stage at the
Charlotteville gauge later this weekend or early next week. River
rises are projected along the Santa Fe River this weekend and next
week, with water levels dependent on how much rainfall occurs
early this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  42  72  46 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  68  50  67  52 /  80  10   0   0
JAX  75  46  71  47 /  80  10   0   0
SGJ  74  52  70  51 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  76  47  75  46 /  60   0   0   0
OCF  77  48  76  48 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$


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